The path to flyweight stability has been more difficult than anyone could have expected.
When it became clear last year that Henry Cejudo was more interested in pursuing a second title than defending the 125-pound belt, the next step was clear: unite top contenders Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez for the title and move on.
If only it were that simple. Before his first vacant title crack in February, Figueiredo lost weight, meaning only Benavidez was eligible to gain it. Figueiredo then beat Benavidez, meaning the title would remain vacant, and to further complicate matters, there was evidence that an accidental head butt contributed to Figueiredo ending Benavidez.
No problem, just book a rematch, right? Done and done, UFC Fight Island 2 here we go. Except that it was revealed the weekend before Saturday’s fight that Figueiredo had tested positive for COVID-19. Now we know that he tested positive for antibodies and not for the active virus, but there was still the question of flying to Abu Dhabi, getting more tests and, somehow, gaining weight with all that.
The good news is that Figueiredo gained weight, as did Benavidez, so we have a title fight, and finally a new champion arrives on Sunday morning. Unless, of course, someone lands a crushing kick at some point, and then let’s start this whole cycle all over again.
In another main action: middleweight contenders Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum seek to return to the win column; Marc Diakiese faces lightweight prospect Rafael Fiziev; Ariane Lipski, former Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki flyweight champion, fights Luana Carolina; and Alexandre Pantoja defends his place in the flyweight ranking against undefeated Askar Askarov.
Than: UFC Fight Island 2
Where: Yas Island in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, July 18. The entire event will air on ESPN +, with preliminaries for seven fights starting at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card of five fights starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez
The second meeting between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez should not look so different from the first in terms of approach. Figueiredo proved in the first fight that he is an unparalleled finisher at 125lbs, while Benavidez played his cunning and tough veteran part.
Conventional wisdom says that the longer the fight lasts, it should benefit Benavidez only because of how talented he is at adapting to his opponents. Until that fateful collision of skulls, Benavidez seemed to be finding his rhythm against Figueiredo. He had the utmost respect for Figueiredo’s power and made sure to stick and move rather than fight. Keeping Figueiredo out of it will be paramount to his success.
On the other hand, Benavidez has always had exceptional hitting power for his size, so he would probably be willing to hit him if the fight goes in that direction. However, that is exactly what Figueiredo would want, because he will look for nothing less than an end, especially if he can become the first fighter to send Benavidez.
If you expect the rematch to end before the final bell, then Figueiredo is the smart choice. But this time I’m leaning towards a decision, and in that scenario, I see Benavidez finally wrapping UFC gold around his waist.
Collect: Benavidez
Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum
On paper, Jack Hermansson is a nightmare matchup for Kelvin Gastelum, right? The stylish Swede will keep Gastelum at bay with that sharp jab, and he’s a fighter strong enough to counter Gastelum’s fight. If all goes well for Hermansson, he could become the second fighter to finish Gastelum.
But here comes the classic “AK Swerve”, where I end up explaining why a fighter will win just to choose his opponent for no apparent reason.
In this case, it is not difficult to explain how Gastelum can get the go-ahead here. Yes, he has a perpetual size handicap, but his endless gas tank holds him up in every fight, and he has a way of luring his opponents into direct battles. It is a formula that has not paid him dividends in his last two outings, but it is not shameful to fall short in the fight against Israel Adesanya and Darren Till. In both fights, Gastelum was within a minute or two of changing the narrative.
In a five-round fight, it would favor Gastelum even more. As things stand, I still like him to press Hermansson early and stay on his face for 15 minutes on the road to a decision and a possible “Night Fight” award for both men.
Collect: Gastelum
Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Fiziev
The most dangerous addition to Marc Diakiese’s game in the past two years could be patience. A fundamentally solid striker to start with, Diakiese has learned a lot in his seven UFC fights so far and appears to have turned a corner in consistently managing to win three-round performances.
In Fiziev, Diakiese faces an aggressive prospect with quick hands. As soon as Fiziev is within range, he will launch hay, and Diakiese will have to prove that his defensive upgrades are legitimate. A counter opening will be there for Diakiese if he can spot Fiziev. Until she does, however, the threat of a coup from Fiziev looms.
Diakiese’s best strategy will be to slow Fiziev down with kicks and mix down takedown attempts to get Fiziev out of his game. Fiziev is one of those who weighs 155 pounds, but he is not yet complete enough to beat Diakiese.
Collect: Diakiese
Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina
There’s a lot I like about the relatively raw Luana Carolina. The 27-year-old doesn’t always look very coordinated, but she has a good motor and a creative mind when it comes to experimenting with techniques in the middle of a fight. She is a good match for Lipski, herself an active foot wrestler.
In her most recent outing, “The Queen of Violence” finally showed the hands that earned her that nickname, and she will also have plenty of opportunities to do so against Carolina. Lipski may get a little crazy, but she still has a lot more experience against quality competition than Carolina, and that will be worth it here. These two are going to start, and when the dust clears, it will be Lipski who will be victorious.
Collect: Lips
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Askar Askarov
Until Friday morning, Alexandre Pantoja thought there was a possibility that he was fighting for the flyweight title if Figueiredo or Benavidez failed to gain weight. Now he has to mentally switch to Askar Askarov, a dangerous prospect who can match Pantoja’s ultimate ability.
Pantoja is the definition of explosive. There is no waste of movement when you feel your opponents, which can lead to some moments of inactivity, but also excitement once you unroll your hands. He has a murderous instinct that cannot be taught.
Askarov hasn’t been able to find his final touch in the UFC as of yet, but he feels like it’s a standout moment waiting for it to happen. His quick hands robbed Tim Elliott of his senses in his previous fight, and if it wasn’t for Elliott’s toughness, Askarov would probably have pushed him away. Askarov is also incredibly strong, and if he chooses to turn this into a wrestling contest, that could be a big problem for Pantoja.
This will be a round-trip battle that could go either way, but I’m leaning towards Pantoja to get a little better on my feet and get the job done.
Collect: Pantoja
Preliminary
Roman Dolidze def. Khadis Ibragimov
Grant Dawson def. Nad Narimani
Joseph Duffy def. Joel Alvarez
Brett Johns def. Montel jackson
Amir Albazi def. Malcolm Gordon
Arman Tsarukyan def. Davi Ramos
Serghei Spivac def. Carlos Felipe
