The first system to be seen is Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD-13), located about 800 miles east of northern Leeward Island. Tropical storm watches have been issued for St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius. Additional watches may be issued as the storm approaches more areas over the next few days.
The second system, Tropical Depression Fourteen (TD-14), is located about 200 miles east of the Honduras / Nicaragua border. A tropical storm has been issued for parts of Honduras.
This storm is expected to be better organized later Thursday, meaning an upgrade to tropical storm is likely to occur in the next 24 hours.
“Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to produce heavy rains over much of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Later Thursday, an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will be deployed to investigate TD-14, giving forecasters a better look into the system to determine if it will be upgraded after a tropical storm.
An extra focus on the Gulf of Mexico
Interesting are TD-13 and TD-14 both to the Gulf of Mexico. The next two names on the list are Laura and Marco. What depression Laura gets, and which one Marco gets, depends only on which storm develops rapidly.
“The longer term forecast for TD13 seems complicated by the presence of another tropical system [TD 14] in the Gulf of Mexico next week, “said Brandon Miller, CNN meteorologist.” Another tropical system spinning in the Gulf will make the prognostic track less certain, as tropical storms and hurricanes in close proximity to each other can alter the wind in the atmosphere and affect each other’s track. “
Have we ever had two tropical storm strength systems in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time?
It happened 60 years ago, said tropical researcher Phil Klotzbach. June 18, 1959, to be exact.
“On that date, we had an unnamed tropical storm (e.g. added after the season) and Beulah,” Klotzbach said. “We have never had two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.”
At present, these systems are still several days away from affecting the US, so there is a lot that can change. Since there are two systems to play here, essentially everything from Texas to Florida is an option.
We are still weeks away from peak of hurricane season
TD-13 and TD-14 are both expected to become tropical storms in the coming days. If that happens, they would be the fastest 12th and 13th storms to form, breaking extra records for most storms this early in the season. To have so many named storms up to this peak is unusual. More importantly, 85% of major hurricanes (Category 3 and above) occur after August 20th.
“We typically did not have 11 named storms until November 23 across the Atlantic,” said Haley Brink, CNN meteorologist. “Come peak hurricane season in September, increasing the prevalent tropical storm surges over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, in addition to the eruption that is occurring off the coast of Africa.”
There are many comparisons there with the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Not only is this year’s hurricane season currently on pace to match the number of named storms in 2005, it also happened to be a year where La Niña developed in the fall.
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