As the typical peak period of the hurricane season begins, the National Hurricane Center, right on its way, follows two systems, both with the potential to make new week landfall.
Tropical Depression 13 formed Wednesday east of the Lesser Antilles. It is expected to intensify and could make landfall Monday, perhaps as a hurricane, in or near South Florida.
Tropical Depression 14 formed Thursday morning in the Caribbean, south of Cuba. This storm will move west and then northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly posing a threat of landfall during Tuesday-Wednesday in the western half of the Gulf Coast.
CBS News
If both systems evolved into tropical storms – with winds of 39 mph or higher – their names would be Laura and Marco.
Two systems simultaneously are par for the course in a season that is at a record pace, with 11 named storms already. If both of these new systems get stormed, the tally will reach 13 – compared to the normal total of 12 for the entire season, which lasts until the end of November.
This record pace comes at a time when we have not even reached the mid-sixs season, with the peak typically occurring around September 10th.
NOAA and other prognostic outlets have warned of a near-record number of storms this season, with up to 24 or 25 named storms forecast. If that happens, it would make the 2020 season the second most active on record. The record is 28 named storms in 2005, a year when the National Hurricane Center was forced to use the Greek alphabet after the storm names came out. That will probably happen again this season.
Tropical Depression 13 is located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, east of Puerto Rico, and it is moving west-northwest at a rapid pace, exceeding 20 mph. It is predicted to reach Puerto Rico on Saturday, likely moving the north of the island like a tropical storm.
Assuming it moves north of Puerto Rico and the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, it will, as expected, not be hindered by the island’s terrain continuing to intensify with the above normal water temperature at the Bahamas and along the coast in the South. -Florida, in the Gulf Stream.
The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast predicts it will be on hurricane strength on Monday, August 24, as South Florida draws closer. The system could make landfall, or pass just south of the peninsula through the Florida Keys or the Florida Straits.
Systems that take a track like this were known to intensify rapidly – such as Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which accidentally made landfall in South Florida on August 24 of that year and caused massive damage.
Due to the fact that atmospheric conditions are conducive to development as the system arrives north of the Caribbean and the Bahamas, and due to ocean temperatures above normal, residents would need to prepare their hedges for the possibility of a serious threat.
Because of the timing of this system, it will likely be in its intensifying phase when it reaches South Florida. Landfall reinforcement systems always produce more damage than systems that are stable or weak in landfall. Thus, residents should be prepared for a category above what is provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 14, located in the Caribbean, looks much healthier on satellite imagery. The system is scheduled to move northwest this weekend near the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. At present, it is not predicted to reach hurricane strength, but that remains to be seen.
Residents of Texas to Louisiana would need to pay close attention to the evolution of Tropical Depression 14. It will be affected by the system behind the direction to Florida. Two tropical systems cannot merge, so one will amplify at the expense of the other attenuation. Which system “wins” remains to be seen, but as at present the system to the east, Tropical Depression 13, is the preference.
There are several reasons for the recovery in Atlantic tropical activity in 2020. The most prominent factor is well above normal sea surface temperature, partly driven by climate change. Since 1900, the surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean have risen by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Each degree of increase adds extra fuel for stronger hurricanes.
In addition to water temperature, other factors include a developing La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, associated with active Atlantic hurricane seasons, and a very active North African monsoon, which has left several tropical seedlings in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
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