Trump’s Approval Rating, Biden’s Speech: Campaign Highlights in 2020

Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign.

The week in figures

• 21.8 million people tuned in to television for Biden’s big night at the congress on Thursday, according to Nielsen, something more than the 21 million who saw former President Barack Obama and Senator Kamala Harris, Mr Biden’s running mate, on Wednesday. The TV ratings for the nominee’s speech were about 21 percent lower than Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech four years ago, although many people watched online.

• A new Gallup poll raises President Trump’s approval rating 42 percent. The approval of Americans for his handling of the economy – typically his strong suit – was 48 percent, roughly even with his June figures, but 15 percentage points off his career high in the winter, just before the pandemic hit.

• Pollsters paused their work during the convention, waiting for things to play out before taking a fresh read of the country. But at the beginning of the week, three separate interviews by respected outlets showed Biden led Trump by an average of eight points.

Catch me up

Democrats breathed a collective sigh of relief this week after the party unveiled an all-virtual convention, half political music video and half Joe Biden, largely without problems.

And whether you like the content of Mr. Asked if you liked or did not like him by his message, one thing was clear: he performed better than the low expectations set in part by his opponent of the general election.

The Joe Biden of the Republican Party’s story is a gaffe machine whose age he is unable to speak clearly, a caricature built over months of tweets by Mr. Trump, scores of interviews by his allies and nocturnal roses by popular conservative media figure. The Joe Biden that many Americans saw this week was clumsy and able to command an audience, although reading from a teleprompter in a room that was largely empty.

If that’s a blank slate, it’s because Mr. Trump and some of his most prominent allies have helped lower it.

External advisers have tried to warn Mr. Trump that he needs to raise expectations for his opponents while lowering them for himself. But that has not stopped the president from shaking people up that he expects the autumn debates to be a hefty experience for his opponent. Mr. Trump was envious of running as an underdog four years ago, but this time his campaign has sought to project an image of dominance, in ways that are not always helpful.

• At the President’s June Rally in Tulsa, Okla., Brad Parscale, the former Trump campaign manager, has broken a cardinal rule of politics: Undergrowth of crowds to surrender. Instead, he made Mr. Trump look angry when only 6,200 people showed up for an event that Mr. Parscale had one million application vouchers.

• Instead of talking about how Mr. Biden could be a formidable opponent at the debate stage, Mr. Trump and his advisers have mostly done the opposite. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, recently claimed there was “active pressure to get Joe Biden not to debate my father” because of concerns he was unable to handle the matchup.

• Jason Miller, a campaign strategist, has tried to change course about how the Trump team eats up Mr. Biden. “Joe Biden is actually a very good debater,” he told The Washington Post this month. But after all the denigration of Mr. Biden, a lone remark from one operative did not do much to put the story back.

Biden strives for the center, not the left

There was a choose-your-own-adventure element for the speakers at the Democratic convention. Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts made policy cases, while current and former Republicans made the case for decency. But throughout the week, there has been a clear emphasis on winning ideological moderates and Trump-skeptical voters – a priority of conviction over the rallying base.

Remember this:

• John Kasich, a Republican and former governor of Ohio, raised fears that Mr Biden would rule in the interests of the left party. “I’m sure there are Republicans and independents who could not imagine crossing over to support a Democrat,” he said. ‘They are afraid that Joe may turn sharply to the left and leave them behind. I do not believe that. Because I know the man’s mate – honest, loyal, respectful. And you know, no one’s putting Joe around. ”

• Mr. Biden constructed his acceptance speech explicitly to turn out of partisanship. “While I will be a Democratic candidate, I will be an American president,” he said. “I will work just as hard for those who did not support me as I will for those who did.”

• At the convention, an important Biden adviser discussed the idea of ​​deficit relief on new programs. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman, who oversees Mrs’ transition team, said. Biden, it was difficult to propose in 2021. major new spending programs. “If you look at what Trump has done to the deficit,” he said, citing the president’s tax cut on top of spending on virus delivery, “we will be limited.”

What will the Republican convention be like?

Biden’s grandchildren were lovely. Shorter speeches were effective. The travel call made for strangely good TV. And answer ‘Where is hunter?’ battle writer with a video testimony of the once manly Biden son was treated delinquently.

Those were concessions that Trump advisers and former White House officials gave to the Democratic National Committee after it pulled the first virtual convention, even while they were having trouble with this week’s general message.

The question is, how do they top that? The answer may be that it is difficult.

• Republican officials waste time that could be used to plan a highly-produced semi-virtual convention by – for much longer than the Democrats – trying to pull off a normal one. Mr. Trump scrapped his plans for a personal convention in Jacksonville, Fla., Just a month before the event was scheduled.

• Instead of handing over the giant to a skilled television producer, Mr. Trump tries to weigh in on much of the programming himself, mostly with the help of people from his own White House. And he insists on still seeing it on television as a ‘real convention’, that is to say, with an audience component, and to even play a major role every night.

• The four nights of the DNC show the difference of the Democratic Party also increases the pressure on the Republican National Committee and Mr. Trump to do more than appeal to grieving white voters. Republican officials plan to mark Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the white couple from St. Louis. Louis who burned weapons at the Black Lives Matter Protestants in June. Will they have a message for people other than the president’s hard-core base?

What you may have missed

Giovanni Russonello contributed reporting.