welcome to Surveillance survey, our weekly look at polling data and research surveys on the candidates, voters, and issues that will shape the 2020 elections.
President Trump’s tone on the coronavirus changed markedly this week. He expressed a new level of concern about the outbreak, said things “were unfortunately likely to get worse,” and called wearing masks a “patriotic” act.
But his heels still seem to be deep into an increasingly pressing question, despite wide public opposition: He continues to insist that schools must reopen in person.
On Thursday night, Trump argued that schools should be able to “safely reopen,” even when he abandoned plans to hold the Republican National Convention in Florida because of concerns about the spread of the virus.
“We cannot indefinitely prevent 50 million American children from going to school, impairing their mental, physical and emotional development,” he said, arguing that federal funds should be diverted from schools that are not reopened in person and destined for coupon programs. “Reopening our schools is also critical to ensuring parents can go to work and support their families.”
But polls show that Americans, particularly parents, remain very concerned about sending students back to school.
An Associated Press / NORC poll this week found that most Americans said they were very or extremely concerned that the reopening of K-12 schools for in-person instruction would help spread the virus. Overall, 80 percent of respondents said they were at least somewhat concerned, including more than three in five Republicans.
“I have yet to see any data where there is an appreciable number of people saying, ‘Yes, I want my children to go back to school,'” Glen Bolger, a veteran Republican pollster, said in an interview. “They want their children to go back to school, but not now. I think security takes priority over education. “
“It shows you how nervous Americans are about the coronavirus,” he added. “Let’s face it, virtual learning couldn’t be worse, yet a large number of parents say, ‘We are not going to put our children back in school.'”
Sixty percent of the AP / NORC survey respondents said it was “essential” that schools be able to provide a combination of in-person and virtual learning. Another 24 percent viewed this as important, though not essential.
Seventy-seven percent of Americans said in the survey that K-12 schools should reopen only if they made significant adjustments (46 percent) or that they should not reopen at all (31 percent). Even among Republicans, 57 percent of respondents chose one of those options.
By a margin of two to one, Americans said in a Quinnipiac University survey released last week that they thought it would not be safe to send children to elementary school in the fall. And by roughly the same broadcast, they said they did not like how Trump was dealing with the reopening of schools.
According to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey released Thursday, 60 percent of parents with children in elementary school said they would prefer schools to reopen more slowly to ensure safety, compared to 34 percent who said they wanted the Schools will prioritize rapid reopening so that parents can get back to work and students can return to a normal learning environment.
Mollyann Brodie, director of Kaiser’s polling operation, said her team’s research showed that many Americans, particularly working-class people, were genuinely concerned about getting the economy back on track. But security concerns won.
“Getting parents back into the workforce and making the economy work again has a lot to gain from that, right?” Dr. Brodie said, referring to Mr. Trump. “But the problem is that before getting that victory, 60 percent are worried about going back.”
“Parents are between a rock and a difficult place,” he said.
From a political perspective, this issue touches on a more deeply ingrained problem for Trump, one that his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., has worked to exploit: the degree to which Americans do it, and more often than not – See the president as empathetic and understanding.
In a recently filmed conversation with former President Barack Obama, Biden modified Trump because of his “inability to get an idea of what people are going through” when it comes to the virus.
In an ABC News / Washington Post poll released this week, when asked to choose between Trump or Biden about who “better understands the problems of people like you,” 52 percent of Americans chose Biden; 35 percent elected the president.
Since the pandemic began, approval of Trump’s response has gone from generally positive to decidedly negative. Most surveys now show that the President’s approval rating for the coronavirus is approximately 20 percentage points in red.
Looking to November, the issue of reopening schools could become an especially hot topic in key battlefield states, particularly those like Florida and Texas, where the virus continues to rise.
A Quinnipiac Florida poll released Thursday found 62 percent of voters there thought it would be unsafe to send students back to elementary school in the fall.
Republican State Governor Ron DeSantis has echoed Trump’s insistence that schools return to classes in person, sparking reprimands from Democrats and a lawsuit from teacher unions.
By a 19-point margin, Florida voters tended to disapprove of how their governor handled reopening of schools. They disapproved of the president’s approach by 23 points.
In Texas, recent polls have shown that Mr. Biden has a rough chance of becoming the first Democrat since 1976 to win the bountiful run of the state Electoral College. Last week, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott withdrew the demand that all schools return to classes in person within the first three weeks of the semester.
52 percent of Texas voters told Quinnipiac interviewers that Abbott had pushed to reopen the state too quickly, compared to only 13 percent who said it had moved too slow, according to a state poll released this week. . As in Florida, about six in 10 Texas voters said they thought it would be unsafe to return K-12 schools in person.
