Republican opponents of Joe Biden have gleefully mocked him for effectively hiding in his basement rather than keeping track of the campaign in recent months.
But an awkward truth is brewing for Biden’s critics: His discreet approach to campaigning is paying off.
A series of new polls have shown Biden leading Donald Trump generously in key battlefield states and nationally. This is despite Trump’s eagerness to start the campaign and hold protests as if the country was not in the midst of a national pandemic.
Biden has physically abandoned his basement and home to campaign (on Thursday, for example, he made comments in Lancaster, Pennsylvania), but he and his team have been much more cautious than the Trump campaign in following health recommendations. Mocking Biden and his “basement” strategy has become part of Trump and his allies’ broader strategy to frame the Democratic candidate as fragile and fearful.
But that criticism hasn’t done much to propel Trump.
“Candidates sometimes have trouble getting out of their own way, and the president is a profound example of that,” said Jon-David Schlough, a Democratic strategist. Schlough described Trump as a “destabilizing force” and added: “I think Biden’s strategy is smart. He wants to be a firm hand in guiding the country through multiple crises, in contrast to Trump’s recklessness.”
Biden and his team have also retained a robust fundraising program, with a series of upcoming virtual events featuring him as a headliner. The campaign has also recently been launching new appointments in the battlefield states and hired experienced strategists in Michigan to run the campaign there, according to multiple Democratic officials. (The campaign has yet to publicly announce those hires.) The campaign has also continued to present proposals and policy statements.
Meanwhile, Trump, in recent weeks, has tried to resume normal campaigns. It held its first campaign rally since the coronavirus pandemic began last Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Attendance at that rally did not meet the president’s expectations, but that has not deterred Trump from holding more public events. He headlined a Students for Trump event in Arizona on Tuesday and participated in a town hall hosted by Sean Hannity that was televised Thursday night when he was visiting Wisconsin.
But Trump’s eagerness to campaign as usual hasn’t given him a noticeable boost in recent polls. If anything, Biden’s more cautious approach has cemented his leadership. A New York Times / Siena College survey found that the former vice president led Trump nationally, from 50% to 36%.
Biden’s campaign has been eager to promote national and state polls. Speaking about campaign replacements obtained by The Guardian, the campaign noted that recent national polls showed it, and state polls like one by Marquette showing Trump in Wisconsin, and a poll in Ohio showing Trump in a porcentual point. Another set of discussion points included figures showing that “an overwhelming majority opposes Trump’s efforts to disembowel Obamacare, and that a majority trust Joe more on the issue of health care.”
In state polls in six key battlefield states, Biden, similarly, has important clues about Trump. Many of the details of those state polls show that voters who support Biden are more inclined to oppose Trump than because they support Biden.
“They certainly have trends on their way,” Nan Whaley, mayor of Dayton, Ohio, and a supporter of Biden, said of the Democratic campaign. “Americans have not been so unhappy since 1970. I think 80% of the country is concerned about the country. I mean, these are trends that are for new leadership. “
But Whaley noted that the way any of the candidates has been campaigning may not be the deciding factor in this race right now. He noted that recent polls show a tight race in Ohio, despite strong publicity from the Trump campaign and the serious new presence of Biden campaign staff.
Biden and his campaign have not indicated any plans to modify his strategy to coincide with Trump’s. Meanwhile, Republicans contend that as election day approaches and especially during the upcoming general election debates, Trump will regain lost ground.
Biden spokesman Mike Gwin said in a statement: “Vice President Biden and our campaign have been aggressively presenting the case to voters and presenting the stark contrast between the strong, consistent and compassionate leadership that Biden would bring to the White House in a moment of crisis like this … and the erratic and divisive behavior of Donald Trump “.
He added: “Trump and his campaign have desperately dumped as much as they can on Biden, but none of that holds up because voters know who Joe Biden is, and they know that Trump is responsible for the historic whirlwind of the coronavirus that left more than 120,000 Americans. dead and another 20 million unemployed, and that Trump has spent every day in office dividing our country and inflaming racial tensions. “
The past few months, where Biden has closely followed medical officials’ guidelines on social estrangement, have represented a tumultuous period in American politics.
Trump has struggled to handle protests over the death of George Floyd, a black man in police custody. His administration has also had to contend with an economy in crisis and the continuing pandemic. Voters generally view Trump more favorably than Biden in the economy, according to most polls, but not much more.
Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster, said that given recent events and current polls, Biden’s leadership may be a snapshot of the November election.
“We will see if it stays, but in the past six weeks the country has drastically moved to trial, and I am starting to wonder what Trump can do, or what he will do, to change it,” Maslin said. “He has talked about ‘Well, we will have a strong recovery.'” Well where is it?
Biden’s leadership of Trump in state and national polls has been stable for a time, said Eric Goldman, who led Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s campaign in 2018. That could still change, but it may not, he adds. .
“A lot has to go well for him, including the momentum shifting in his direction, and it’s not clear that that’s going to happen,” Goldman said. “It doesn’t seem like they have any kind of solutions from a governance point of view.”
.
