ORAdvocates of Donald Trump often describe him as a “political genius” who has a cunning understanding of the anxieties and fears of American society, and is capable of creating and using crises to his advantage. The current showdown in Portland shows, once again, that this is not the case. While his alleged fight against the antifa will satisfy some of his far-right supporters, he increasingly risks alienating so-called “moderate” Republicans, who appear to be used primarily to describe pocket Republican voters, who are already feel uncomfortable about their handling of Covid-19 and the economic consequences of the pandemic.
An almost ignored aspect of the current Covid-19 pandemic is that Trump did not use it to push his authoritarian agenda by increasing executive powers, weakening the powers of other institutions, such as Congress, and marginalizing dissent, for example by banning demonstrations. Almost all other countries implemented a more repressive Covid-19 approach, including those governed by progressive parties (like Spain), while most far-right governments used it to push for draconian repressive measures (like Hungary and India).
Of course, the explanation is that Trump initially denied and ignored the dangers of Covid-19, arguing that “everything will be fine” and that “warmer weather” would take care of that. This made it difficult for him to change to an authoritarian approach later. Difficult, but certainly not impossible. But clearly Trump never wanted to do it. Instead, he continued to insist on an economic approach to reelection, repositioning himself as the savior of the United States economy and aggressively pressing for the “reopening of the United States.”
A second chance to push an authoritarian agenda came with the Black Lives Matter protests in the wake of the police killings of Ahmaud Arbery, George Floyd, and Breonna Taylor this spring. Trump’s response was as expected, playing on the racialized fears of the broader Republican electorate about chaos and riots. In the 15 days between Floyd’s murder and funeral, Trump tweeted 195 times about riots, law enforcement, and the threat of military use.
But instead of prioritizing the race card, his natural response, Trump quickly redefined the Black Lives Matter protests as antifa protests. This redefinition was in line with two longer-term processes within the Trump camp. First, Trump seems to truly believe that he has a chance to significantly increase his support among African Americans. For example, he long boasted that his administration “has done more for the Black Community than any other President since Abraham Lincoln.” (Needless to say, this is not true.)
Second, Antifa has become a popular bag man within the broader conservative movement, at least since provocative visits to the campus of (ex) right-wing beloveds like Milo Yiannopoulos in the early days of the Trump presidency. The altercations between far-right activists and Antifa, disproportionate to the mainstream media, were happily incorporated into right-wing propaganda, and Antifa became a favorite subject of many of the president’s favorite shows on Fox News.
Trump became increasingly obsessed with the antifa. He also spread conspiracy theories about antifa, echoing far-right media such as his new favorite television channel, One America News Network (OANN), as well as far-right social media accounts. He even tweeted his intention to designate “ANTIFA” as a terrorist organization, an almost certain unconstitutional movement.
Strengthened by information from his right-wing bubble, the Portland protests must have seemed like a golden opportunity. Portland has long been one of the main symbols of left-wing politics in the United States: progressives see it positively, despite slightly mocking programs like Portlandia, and negatively on the right.
But the problem is that the Portland protests play only with one of Trump’s ideological strengths: authoritarianism. Since Portland is the whitest big city in the United States, the vast majority of protesters are white, leaving their biggest asset, racism, largely irrelevant. Similarly, populism is largely useless, as few people will believe that “the elite” lives or cares deeply for Portland, unlike, for example, New York.
Portland is not only a bad option because of the limited appeal to the broader Republican electorate. It could also be counterproductive. Police brutality against small and even radical groups of protesters could lead to increased support for protesters.
This happened, for example, at the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine in 2013-14, and seems to be happening now in Portland as well. As Trump’s “little green men” pick up peaceful protesters from the streets, without proper identification and in unmarked cars, the discussion drifts away from alleged antifa violence to the administration’s threat to American democracy Trump.
The redefinition of the protests goes hand in hand with the diversification of the protesters. The protesters are no longer simply young white “anarchists” who can count on little particular sympathy outside the small progressive circles; Now the stalwarts of America’s conservative society are also represented: mothers and veterans. And they are also arrested, beaten and worn out.
In a society as militarized and patriarchal as the United States, veterinarians and mothers are powerful symbols of the existing order. Seeing them protest against the government, and particularly against a dubious and unnecessarily violent paramilitary unit, is a publicity issue for the Trump administration. These are the salt of the earth for the Republican electorate, which will not automatically assume that these groups are wrong. Furthermore, many Republicans will have far less tolerance for disproportionate repression of white moms and vets than they unfortunately have for left-wing African Americans and young whites.
In short, Trump’s decision to “unleash” authoritarianism in Portland was poor. After ignoring much better opportunities like Covid-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests, he finds himself caught up in a confrontation that excites only part of his base and increasingly worries the Republican electorate at large. And as the public image of the Portland protester increasingly reflects some stalwarts of American society, and thus of the Republican electorate, Trump could be increasingly fighting against himself.
The fact that the federal police are being withdrawn from Portland shows that even Trump realized his mistake.
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Cas Mudde is Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF Professor of International Affairs at the University of Georgia, author of The Far Right Today (2019) and host of the new Radikaal podcast
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