President Trump’s decision to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region marks the end of American neutrality in the conflict, which threatens to destabilize the crucial North African corner for Europe and European security interests.
Morocco’s decades-long conflict with Western Sahara’s freedom fighters remained dormant until last month. Fighting resumed in November after nearly three decades in which a UN-sponsored ceasefire helped maintain relations between Morocco and Algeria, the main supporters of the independence movement. Both countries are important security partners of both the US and Europe.
If the violence is not caught, observers warn that it could undermine security in the wider region, smuggling weapons to criminal networks and sanctions that link it to the conflicts in Libya, Mali and Niger.
“This is an issue that needs attention, needs resolution, and is moving from a simmer to a low boil. Trump has just started a fire, “said Hannah Roy Armstrong, an independent conflict expert.
Mr Trump’s announcement on Thursday backed Morocco’s claim to the Western Sahara, which is part of the White House’s efforts to do the same after August, as part of the White House’s efforts to reconcile the Jewish-led state and its Middle East neighbors.
The deal is a strategic victory for both Israel and Morocco, which sought to consolidate their control over the Western Sahara after annexing the former Spanish colony in 1975. But it is a major setback for the rebellious Polisario Front’s aspirations, which it has fought. The region has been governed since the 1970s by the region’s independence and deportation based and directed by neighboring Algeria.
Polisario condemned Europe’s decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty, but did not say whether it would increase its military campaign, which included regular firing at Moroccan locations on a 1,700-mile sand wall built inside the disputed Moroccan region. Algeria did not respond publicly.
On the ground in Western Sahara, activists said Mr. Trump’s announcement has inspired more people to join the war effort against Morocco.
“I’m really sad and speechless,” said an activist in Laun, the largest city in Western Sahara. “This is a sign of a protracted armed conflict that both the US and Morocco are trying to engage us in one way or another.”
Polisario front troops in an Algerian refugee camp last month.
Photo:
Javier MartÃn Rodriguez / Zuma Press
The conflict in Western Sahara has been dormant for almost three decades since the signing of the 1991 ceasefire agreement, which called for a referendum to decide the region’s future. The referendum has never been held due to differences with Morocco over the terms of the vote.
Nevertheless, the ceasefire remained in place, and this meant that parts of the wider region remained a pocket of peace in the Western Sahara despite the crisis. Libya is in conflict after the transition to democracy broke down after the uprising that toppled Moammar Gadhafi in 2010. Insurgents in Mali, Niger, Nigeria and elsewhere and unsafe places have created illegal migration to Europe and access to activity by al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates.
The relative calm ended last month. Morocco launched a military operation in the patrol buffer zone by the UN to clear protesters who were blocking the route connecting the region with neighboring Mauritania. In response, the Polisario Front withdrew from the 1991 ceasefire and declared war on Morocco.
The escalation of the war threw an unexpected desert into U.S.-brokered negotiations aimed at bringing Morocco in the direction of recognizing Israel.
Trump administration officials reached out to Moroccan leaders and warned them that a spiral of deadly violence could derail temporary talks, a U.S. official said. The U.S. side re-emphasized the message in further talks with Moroccan leaders over the past few weeks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met in Washington in September.
Photo:
saul loeb / Agency France Press / Getty Images
The White House team finally decided that the rewards of making the deal increased the risk that it could provoke an unstable new cycle of violence in North Africa.
But while the new deal recognizing Morocco’s control of the Western Sahara gives Washington a slight advantage over Morocco, regional analysts say the U.S. has no influence over how police and its allies react to Algeria.
The Polizarios command a large conventional military force, built over years with Algerian support, including artillery and tanks. He also said he was mobilizing his people for a renewed war against Morocco.
Activists in the Western Sahara are also concerned that Mr Trump’s decision to back Morocco could intensify Morocco’s crackdown on those sympathetic to the independence movement. In November, Moroccan police surrounded the homes of some activists and arrested at least four people, according to activists in the region and Amnesty International.
Mr. Trump’s announcement also binds the next administration of President-elect Joe Biden. Mr Biden could face pressure from his own party members and foreign allies to relinquish control of Europe’s Morocco over Western Sahara. Can take back recognition.
But any reversal of Mr. Trump’s declaration would cause friction between both Morocco and Israel, adding to the long list of foreign policy issues Mr. Biden must face growing tensions with Iran and concerns about the long-term stability of both Iraq and Afghanistan. After Mr. Trump ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Morocco was slow to accept a deal with Israel, reflecting domestic pressure on King Mohammed by Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reject normalization with Israel, only to be confirmed after his announcement.
The king’s office said Morocco has agreed to open diplomatic relations with Israel and will allow direct flights between the two countries for Moroccan Jews and Israeli tourists. The king also promised economic cooperation with Israel, including opening liaison offices in both countries.
Write to Jared Mulsin at [email protected] and Dion Nissenbaum at [email protected]
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