Rather than signal a change, the move underscores how much Trump has already damaged his own prospects. Two new national polls in recent days showed the President running a double-digit deficit against Democratic opponent Joe Biden. Trump, not Parscale, dug that hole.
The president began digging long before the coronavirus overturned American life. Trump’s crude, gruesome and divisive style has made him the first president to never reach 50% approval in the Gallup Poll.
It led House Republicans to a crushing defeat in the 2018 midterm elections, even as the economy grew smartly. By January 2020, when the Democratic primary campaign heated up, Trump beat Biden by nine percentage points in CNN polls.
In the successive series of national crises since then, Trump has deepened and hardened his disadvantage. That, in turn, has overshadowed his opportunity to do what presidential re-election efforts often do: flaunt the incumbent’s accomplishments, set a flattering contrast to his opposition, and outline a hopeful vision for the second term.
Trump has almost abandoned the attempt to stop the pandemic that has so far claimed the lives of more than 138,000 Americans. Obviously repeating false assessments of the crisis, refusing to promote the use of masks that health experts agree would help, and despising the experience of their own scientists.
The coronavirus shattered the economic expansion Trump had claimed as his brilliant achievement. Now their impatience to restore lost growth, by pressuring states to reopen prematurely, has accelerated viral spread. That has dampened the incipient recovery, forcing major cities and states to consider re-imposing costly restrictions that Trump pressed so hard to lift.
Protests for racial justice after the death of George Floyd complete the awkward portrait. The 74-year-old president inflames the crisis rather than calms it, indulging the backlash instincts of the 1960s era as most voters seek something different for a diverse 21st century nation.
From wearing masks to racially offensive language and banishing the Confederate flag, the president has pushed institutions that symbolize the heart of America toward his opponents.
“When a Republican president is on the wrong side of a culture war with Walmart and NASCAR, Republicans can stop to think about the insanity Trump is making you defend,” Stuart Stevens, a former Republican advertiser, tweeted. Other Republicans warn that their dishonest sides of voting by mail will harm the party by discouraging voting in the absence of the Republican Party.
Last week’s Quinnipiac University poll cataloged the remains of two main indicators for incumbent presidents. Three-fourths of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the state of the nation; 60% disapproved of their job performance.
Two-for-one, voters said Trump hurts rather than aided efforts to stop the coronavirus, and they are wary of what he says about it. They preferred Biden over Trump in managing the pandemic, medical care, racial inequality, and even the economy.
Overall, Trump lagged behind in his potential November showdown by fifteen percentage points, from 52% to 37%. Changing conditions can reduce that national gap and Trump’s smaller deficits in battlefield states. But it’s too big for a new campaign manager to erase with well-targeted campaign events, spirited engagement operations, or sharp negative announcements.
In a normal campaign, “a well-played hand can be worth a point or two on the fringes of a particular state,” says Daron Shaw, a University of Texas political scientist who advised George W. Bush’s two winning presidential offers. . In 2020, Shaw says, “Trump is such a dominant presence that Biden’s (voter) views don’t even matter in any way.”
Trump also can’t rack up memories of the burgeoning pre-coronavirus economy with his slogan “return to greatness” because, Shaw adds, “you can’t be out of step with reality.”
House and Senate campaigns celebrate Stepien’s elevation anyway. Colleagues cite his calm demeanor, intelligence, and past work for more mainstream Republicans like Bush, John McCain, and Chris Christie. That makes Stepien more likely to understand the needs of others at the party than Parscale or Trump.
“It’s still uphill, but it can fill some of the potholes and smooth some of the potholes,” says Republican Party pollster Glen Bolger.
The hill looks exceptionally steep. At this point in 2012, when Madden served as the Republican candidate’s spokesperson, Democratic incumbent Barack Obama led Romney in the Gallup Poll by four percentage points. That ended with Obama’s winning popular voting margin.
“You really don’t learn how little these campaigns matter until you stop working on them,” Madden says now. “What were those 18 hour days for?”
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