On Friday morning, hurricane fighters flying east of Puerto Rico to investigate Tropical Depression 13 found that the system has now been strengthened enough to be designated as Tropical Storm Laura. And, in a major development, the center of the system has reformed much further south, changing its likely trajectory as it approaches the United States.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 14 continues along the coast just off the coast of Honduras in the western Caribbean Sea. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Marco today, as the northwest faces the Gulf of Mexico.
Both of these systems are affected next week to affect the northern Gulf Coast of the US, probably within a day of each other, complicating an emergency response already thinly contaminated by coronavirus.
Tropical Storm Laura is currently southeast of Puerto Rico with winds of 40-50 mph and moving sharply to the west-northwest around 18 mph. The latest computer models and the National Hurricane Center probably let Laura move near or across the Greater Antilles islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.
This would reduce the threat to South Florida on Monday, as it now appears the system could move south of the state, but it is too early to say for sure. The Florida Keys are still in the predictive cone.
As the storm moves across the islands, more interaction with hostile terrain would make the system harder to become stronger. However, this also means that flooding rains are more likely on the islands.
And the track further south means that any landfall on the northern Gulf of Mexico coast would be delayed by a day, giving the system extra time to strengthen if it reaches the above average temperature of the Gulf’s sea level. reached.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast brings the center of the railroad to the northeastern Gulf Coast – from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle – by Wednesday, perhaps as a hurricane.
The intensity will depend on whether it survives the trek across the islands intact and how much it can intensify as it enters the Gulf. As you can see below, the intensity forecast of various models varies from a weak tropical wave to a major hurricane.
Tropical Depression 14, which would be called Marco, also poses a threat to the Gulf Coast, but further west and probably a day for Laura.
The official forecast of the National Hurricane Center calls on Marco to step up shortly after a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, before weakening shortly before landfall due to wind shear. Landfall is currently forecast to come across the central Texas coast to the western Louisiana coast on Tuesday, like a tropical storm.
The question often arises about what happens when you have two tropical systems right next to each other. Can they merge? The answer is no. Quite the opposite, they act to hinder each other, because each has a sinking air to its outskirts, which weakens the other storm. Typically, the larger storm will weaken the smaller one.
But there is another effect that gets a lot of attention on social media called Fujiwhara influence. When storms come close together, they can participate in a kind of dance, run around a common center.
Although interesting, it poses an enormous challenge to forecasters and can affect where the storms eventually land. Whether this happens has a lot to do with the timing and size of each system, and that remains to be seen.
The bottom line is that the prognosis at this point is uncertain. With many potential outcomes still on the table, the best advice to be prepared for now is if you live in the Florida Keys or along the Gulf Coast.
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