- Tropical Storm Laura has developed east of the Leeward Islands.
- It will continue until Saturday near the Leeward Islands with rain and gale force winds.
- Tropical storm surges have been issued in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Bahamas.
- Laura can approach Florida and the Gulf of Mexico next week.
- The intensity and trace for this system is very uncertain as it approaches the US
- It is too early to say what, if any, impact on the American continent might look like.
Tropical Storm Laura will impact the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend with rain and gale force winds. Laura could then start new week heading for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a hurricane. However, the forecast intensity and track at that time are very uncertain.
This is the earliest that the ‘L’ named storm has formed on record. The previous plate was Luis on August 29, 1995.
Tropical Storm Laura travels west-northwest to the northeastern Caribbean and NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the center is further south than previously reported.
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico forecast
Tropical Storm Laura is likely to move fairly rapidly in the coming days to the west-northwest on the southern periphery of a high-pressure system to the north.
Tropical storm surges have been issued for parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Current watches and alerts
(A watch is issued if tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued if these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Rain and wind gusts from this system will spread to parts of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Current radar, watches and warnings
Locally heavy rainfall, despite the strength of the system, is possible, which can trigger flash flooding.
In Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, maximum total rainfall can be up to 3 to 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.
1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected in the northern Leeward Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, with maximum rainfall up to 5 inches.
This rain can cause mudslides in the elevated terrain of the islands.
The National Water Service has issued a flash flood watch for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The NWS says there is a high risk of flash floods and mudslides in steep terrain this weekend.
Last month, something finally became Isaiah dumped 6 to 12 inches of rain in parts of Puerto Rico, leading to significant flash floods.
Not sure of ahead for the US
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast shows Laura approaching Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm as hurricane begins next week. However, this forecast is not as simple as it may seem and you can expect changes over the next several days.
Warm ocean temperatures and low to moderate wind shear are factors that favor the rigid strengthening of this system over the weekend.
One major obstacle that this system could overcome is possible interaction of land with the higher terrain of Hispaniola and / or Cuba. There is also the possibility that dry air could be drawn into this system, which would be another obstacle to reinforcement.
Current information
(The red-shaded area indicates the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that impact (especially heavy rain, high surf, coastal flood, wind) with each tropical cyclone usually spreads above its prognostic path. )
Those conflicting prognostic factors mean that there is a wide range of outcomes that remain possible.
Here are some, but not all, of the scenarios depicted in various tutorials for computer models.
1 This system approaches Florida, then moves into the Gulf of Mexico like a tropical storm like a hurricane.
2. Dry air and / or land interactions cause this system to disappear before reaching Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.
3 The system remains weak or disappears even over the next several days, but then reorganizes and strengthens as it approaches Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.
(MORE: 3 Scenarios for Tropical Storm Laura)
It could also interact with Tropical Depression Fourteen, currently located in the western Caribbean Sea but promising to explore the Gulf of Mexico
The ultimate rule is that it is too early to know what, if any, will affect this system to other parts of the Caribbean than the mainland of the United States. If this system reaches the mainland of the United States, it would be the beginning of a new week, first in parts of Florida.
All interests along the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast, including Florida, should closely monitor the forecast. Check weather.com for updates.
The Water Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
.
