MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a public statement at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 14, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Josephine (formerly Invest 95L and Tropical Depression 11) following the Caribbean. .
Josephine is the earliest ‘J’ storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical Storm Josephine projected path
Tropical Storm Josephine is located about 680 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moves west-northwest at 17 mph (28 km / h).
NHC forecasters say this general motion is expected to continue in the coming days, followed by a turn to the northwest late this weekend or early next week.
On the trail of the NHC, the center of Josephine is expected to continue to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Josephine computer models
Spaghetti models agree that Tropical Storm Josephine will move west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and then curve northwest into the open Atlantic Ocean before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles.
The CMC computer model (yellow triangle) is the western outlier.
The GFS American model (purple square) predicts a turn north toward Bermuda.
The NHC forecast (red circle) over 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus consisting of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models.
Beyond mid-period, the NHC forecast is basically a mixture of the IVCN and the global models now showing that Josephine is degenerating into a residual low on day 5.
Tropical Storm Josephine category strength
Tropical Storm Josephine has a maximum sustained wind of 40 km / h (65 km / h), with higher southerly winds.
Some reinforcement is expected through Friday night.
Winds with tropical storm force extend outward to 130 km (ten km) north of the center of the tropical cycle.
NOAA and Colorado State University predict an ‘extremely active’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season that runs from June 1 through November 30.
