Tropical storm Gonzalo formed on Wednesday in the central Atlantic basin, halfway between the West African coast and the islands of the Lesser Antilles. It was originally expected to remain a tropical storm, but the National Hurricane Center has revised its forecast to increase the chances of it becoming a hurricane on Thursday night or Friday, before it approaches the southern Caribbean at weekends.
As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center said that a hurricane watch is in effect for the islands of Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Gonzalo had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is moving west at approximately 14 mph. The storm is forecast to hit the southern Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
Although Gonzalo’s future track seems quite simple, the intensity is very uncertain. The computer models that meteorologists use to forecast these systems fall into two fields. Global computer models, such as the well-known European model, show that the system weakens as it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean. But specialized tropical models are more robust, show the strength of the storm in the face of a hurricane, and remain that way for the next 5 days.
It is not known which group of models will prove correct, but so far tropical models seem to be doing a better job. This is partly because Gonzalo is a small system and these tropical models can better analyze characteristics on a smaller scale.
Small systems can often protect themselves from the surrounding environment. In this case there is dry air around the system. Stronger tropical models keep the influence of dry air to a minimum through cocoon or storm protection, allowing it to strengthen. Larger scale models allow dry air to feed in, weakening storm structure and thunderstorms.
Regardless of what happens next, Gonzalo is already one of the record books. It is the seventh oldest named system of any recorded Atlantic season.
And by the end of the week there may be another named system, this time much closer to home. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a wide area of low pressure with a disorganized group of storms over the center of the Gulf of Mexico. The chance of development has now increased to 80%, with a tropical depression or tropical storm likely to form on Friday. Either way, it’s likely to bring gusty winds and heavy downpours to Texas on Friday and Saturday.
One of the reasons for the active season so far has been the unusually warm waters in the tropical Atlantic, and that seems to continue. Gonzalo marks the beginning of the second phase of the hurricane season, which is called the Cape Verde season. This is when systems in the main development region, between Africa and the Caribbean, explode. It usually occurs between the beginning and the middle of August, but this season begins several weeks earlier. This is due in part to temperatures near the historic warm sea surface in the main development region.
Furthermore, Gonzalo is forming far to the south compared to most other tropical systems.
His prospects beyond the weekend are very uncertain at the moment. But there is at least some chance that it will continue to be a hurricane in the Caribbean, and if so, it will be necessary to closely monitor this storm to see if it turns north to the US or moves west to Central America. .
After Gonzalo, computer models show another system with good potential for development that is now emerging from Africa. While their fate is uncertain, what seems certain is that a couple of active weeks, and probably the hurricane season as a whole, is upon us now. This is in line with all seasonal forecasts from various organizations warning that it is likely to be one of the most active hurricane seasons on record in the Atlantic.
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