Interestingly, no matter how active the hurricane season has been, it will be the first named hurricane to make landfall in Florida this year.
If Ata hits Florida, it will also be the 12th hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. this season, the highest in a single year. The previous storms this year were Bertha, Cristobal, Faye, Hannah, Isaiah, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta, Delta and Zeta.
Multiple landfills are possible for Florida
After it crosses Cuba, a high-pressure system near Bermuda will partially move into the Gulf of Mexico west of the storm. By doing so, Eta can land in Florida anywhere from Miami to Key West.
Once Eta has moved too far west of that high-pressure system, it will start moving north. This movement is common for tropical systems in the Northern Hemisphere as hurricanes frequently move toward the equator and north. After that, the forecast models actually start to differ in terms of track agreement. Most of these reasons are due to the cold front passing through the southeastern U.S.
“Cold fronts descending from the north could add another layer of complexity to the November landfall forecast,” said CNN meteorologist Tyler Mouldi.
This particular cold front steering could end Eta once again towards Florida, perhaps with another landfill fall – this time anywhere on the west coast from Sarasota to Panamadale on Panama City.
Regardless of whether it actually creates a landfall, it will bring heavy rain, tornadoes, and hurricanes to South Florida in the next 48 hours.
From Keys to Naples to Miami, the average amount of rainfall will vary from to to inches, with varying amounts.
Heavy storms with tornadoes and waterspots are also possible in South Florida on Sunday.
Several hurricane hunting flights have been planned for Sunday. Data captured by this Flights will help forecasters better understand the surroundings of the storm and the surrounding environment, so they can shorten exactly where these hurricanes will go.
This is not the only unusual track
“Florida is no stranger to tropical misconduct during the month of November,” Mouldi said. “In fact, the state has seen numerous tropical systems landfill during the month, including Hurricane Cat, the latest hurricane to make landfill in the U.S. in November 1985.”
“There have also been November systems with multiple landfalls. Gordon Law of 1994. He is well remembered for his erratic track, creating three different landfalls moving in place of the state.”
But surprisingly, three separate landfills are not recorded. The title is Tropical Storm Fan, which created a record four separate landfalls in Florida in 2008.
Feno’s first landfall was on Key West on August 18, then in less than 24 hours he landed a second time just south of Naples.
It crossed the state and entered the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean near Melbourne, turning just west to Florida. This resulted in a third landfall on Flagler Beach. The hurricane once again crossed the state and emerged in the Gulf of Mexico. Two days later, it landed its fourth and final landfall just east of Apalachikola in Florida Pandahand.
Four separate landfalls are unlikely for ETA, while two or three landfills are certainly likely given the current forecast track.
Oh, and if you think hurricanes named 28 aren’t enough … there’s another tropical disturbance in the Atlantic. Right now, it’s only 20% of the name storm to develop in the next five days, but the next name on that list is the Greek letter Theta. If named, it would break the record for most named storms in a single season.
CNN’s Tyler Mouldi contributed to the story.
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