These are not outliers. Virtually every credible poll released in the past six weeks has shown Biden with an advantage over Trump that falls somewhere between the high digits and the low double digits. And Trump’s decision to shake up his campaign leadership on Wednesday night speaks to the fact that the incumbent knows he is in serious trouble.
This does not mean that the race is over. Things change! There are still more than 100 days until the elections!
But the current state of the race clearly has an impact on how Biden chooses a race partner, a decision we hope for sometime next month.
Why? Because with such a big lead in both state and national polls, Biden is less likely to make a micropolitical-driven decision (i.e. elect a vice-presidential candidate from a state that needs to win) and is much more likely to take a government election: a person he believes is best equipped to serve not only as vice president, but also to run for president.
With that in mind, I’ve adjusted my VP rating a bit. Below is the new list of the top 10 women I consider most likely to end up as Biden’s career partner this fall. And here are last week’s ratings for reference!
(These rankings change weekly, so if your favorite isn’t ranked where it should be, or isn’t even on the list, there’s always next week. Michelle Obama’s Necessary Warning: The former first lady isn’t on this list because she she has never shown an interest in being political. If she did, she would immediately jump to the top of these rankings.)
10. Tammy Baldwin: The Wisconsin senator would be more than just a geographic choice: she would make history as the first gay person known on a major national holiday ticket. However, there isn’t much noise around her right now, as the importance of Biden winning a single swing state has faded. (Previous ranking: 9)
9. Karen Bass: The California congresswoman is the least known person on the list. But as president of the Black Caucus of Congress, she is at the center of the national conversation about race and vigilance in the country. And the time she spent in leadership of the California State Assembly, she became a speaker in 2008, gives her the kind of government experience we know about the Biden Awards as a vice president. (Previous ranking: 10)
8. Elizabeth Warren: The Massachusetts senator is an election to join a fractured party. The Democratic Party, at the moment, does not seem very fractured. Also, if Biden sees the elected vice president as his chance to start grooming the leader of the next generation of Democratic politicians, Warren, at age 71, he doesn’t fit that bill. (Previous ranking: 7)
7. Gina Raimondo: The more Biden looks at a governing election rather than a policy, the better the Rhode Island governor looks. She is excited about how she dealt with the coronavirus pandemic in her state (“How the smallest State designed a great Covid comeback”, “And the smallest State will lead the way in Covid-19”) and is widely recognized as one of The most practical governors of the country. (Previous ranking: 8)
6. Demings of Val: This Politico story of Demings’ time as a police chief in Orlando is VERY difficult for her, and she considers the Florida congresswoman as part of the problem when it comes to surveillance. That said, Demings’ personal story is still so powerful, and she recounts it very well. “I think only in America can that little black girl who grew up, the daughter of a maid and janitor, serve as a school patrol, be on a short list for the vice president of the United States,” she told Jimmy Fallon this week. . “I am honored and humbled by the possibility.” (Previous ranking: 5)
5. Michelle Lujan Grisham: In an interview with Jonathan Capeheart of The Washington Post this week, the New Mexico governor was shy about where he was in the VP process with Biden’s background investigation committee. “I want Biden to choose what makes her ticket chosen,” is all she would offer. That is in accordance with the broader philosophy that Lujan Grisham has adopted about her status as a possible choice: just don’t talk about it. Like, not at all. Perhaps what Biden is looking for is discreet? (Previous ranking: 4)
4. Tammy Duckworth: The Illinois senator peaks exactly on the veepstakes. “Tammy Duckworth breaks into the VP dispute,” said a recent headline in Politico. For a long time I thought Duckworth was the dark horse in this race, his personal history of overcoming obstacles is impressive, and I still believe that the more people get to know him, the greater his chances. And, thanks to Tucker Carlson, many more people know her name now than a few weeks ago (Previous ranking: 6)
3. Susan Rice: Nobody’s chances are improved more by Biden’s broad leadership than those of the former United States Ambassador to the United Nations. In an interview with The 19th this week, Rice downplayed the importance of an experienced colleague in elected office. “I think the most important thing when it comes to governance is to have a partner for the vice president who can do things, who understands the executive branch, who understands Congress, who understands the budget, and who has the means to help drive the arduous work that is going to be necessary to face the coronavirus, boost the economy, tackle the inequities of the nation in a fundamental and profound way, “he said. Does it sound like someone you know? (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Keisha Lance Bottoms: The Atlanta mayor’s fight with Covid-19 (she, her husband, and one of their children have the virus) gives a very personal window into the disease and its consequences. Additionally, she remains Biden’s substitute on race issues, an issue Trump seems determined to keep talking about. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Kamala Harris: The California senator makes even more sense to Biden: a historic choice (she would be the first African American and American Indian woman on a national ticket to a major party) from a giant Democratic state with experience in crime and surveillance. My only lingering doubt? Did Harris personally poison the well more with Biden during the primary campaign than he’s letting on? (Previous ranking: 1)
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