Elections in Belarus are usually a boring, predictable affair.
Often referred to as “the last dictator of Europe”, Alexander Lukashenko is usually crowned the victor in an event that has had the same outcome over his 26 years of iron fisted rule.
But this time it is different. Three women face Lukashenko, one of the world’s most authoritarian leaders, in a challenge that symbolizes the hunger for change.
Just a few weeks ago, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova had no plans to take over the presidency.
Now they are holding rallies with tens of thousands of their supporters – the biggest expression of dissent Belarus has seen in years – asking them to vote for Lukashenko.
“What the three women were doing was uniting many of their supporters, and you can see from the number of people they are attracting with their political rallies that there is strong support for the kind of change they are known for,” said Emily Ferris of the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.
Although there is little doubt that Lukashenko, 65, will remain in power after Sunday’s election, the trio have “made unusual activism in Belarusian society,” said Alesia Rudnik, a research fellow at the Center for New Ideas. , a Minsk-based think tank.
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“Despite the election result, these three figures managed to illustrate the fight against the regime by raising awareness and giving hope to ordinary Belarusians,” she said.
Tsikhanouskaya, 37, a former teacher and translator with no political experience, registered as a presidential candidate after the election commission rejected the registration of her husband, popular political blogger Syarhei Tsikhanouski. He was later arrested in an assault in support of his wife and remains in custody on multiple charges, according to the country’s investigative committee. He dismissed the accusers as a provocation.
Veronika Tsepkalo’s husband, Valeriy, a former ambassador to Washington, was denied registration as a presidential candidate and fled to Russia last month after being tipped off that his arrest was serious.
The two women met with Kolesnikova, the campaign manager for Viktor Babariko, a former banker and opposition candidate, who was arrested on charges that his team called “absurd” and later disqualified from the race by the election commission.
Since uniting their campaigns last month, the three women have become the faces of opposition in Belarus.
An image of her with three different symbolic gestures – a clenched fist for Tsikhanouskaya, a victory sign for Tsepkalo and a heart shape for Kolesnikova – has gone viral.
Although Tsikhanouskaya is the only one who actually runs for office, she asserts that she is not a politician.
She said she registered last month as a presidential candidate to support her husband, who was snobbed by the election commission. Since then, she has transformed from a self-described “mother and wife” indifferent to politics into an outspoken opposition leader who has challenged Lukashenko to a face-to-face live TV debate.
“I’m not in politics for power. I’m in for justice,” she said in an address on state TV last month.
“We have two options – to live in poverty and empty promises or to build a Belarus that we deserve.”
She promises to release all political prisoners if elected and allow candidates who remain standing, including her husband, to run in a new election six months later.
Tsikhanouskaya’s platform is otherwise poor on details, but its key messages include economic recovery and improvement of living standards.
The challenge seems to be enough to separate some voices from Lukashenko, who has branded himself as “Batska”, meaning “father” in Belarusian.
In addition to grievances over the economy, human rights and fatigue with his rule, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic has further strengthened the opposition.
Lukashenko dismissed the pandemic as a “psychosis” that could be easily cured by vodka and fresh air, and refused to cover the country of 9.5 million people.
The country’s already weak economy is expected to contract by at least 4 percent by 2020 – the biggest downturn in 25 years, the World Bank warned in May, calling COVID-19’s impact on Belarus “serious.”
Human rights groups have for years criticized the Lukashenko government for striving for dissent and independent media. And Western observers have described previous elections as rigged to keep him in office.
Official opinion polls are almost non-existent, but experts still believe that Lukashenko is rapidly losing his electorate. But will voters turn to Tsikhanouskaya, instead?
“Sviatlana is running to change everything,” Tsepkalo said during a news release announcing that her campaigns were united. “She runs to wipe the slate clean.”
Lukashenko has rejected Tsikhanouskaya’s offer.
“Our constitution is not for women,” he quipped at a news conference last month. “Our society is not ready to vote for a woman.”
Yauheni Preiherman, director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations, a political think tank, said there was no doubt that Tsikhanouskaya would collect almost all anti-Lukashenko votes.
Preiherman said that although Tsikhanouskaya’s campaign is unlikely to succeed, it could have long-lasting effects. Their camp has been unclear about what should happen once the election decision is rigged.
Prosthetics after the election, which Preiherman considers inevitable, could become chaotic or even violent, he said, prompting a potentially draconian state response.
Belarusian authorities have detained more than 1,000 participants during protests since the campaign began.
“Lukashenko has never hidden his willingness and determination to use all the means necessary to guarantee his stay in power. This time is no different,” Preiherman said.
