Theft review: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway at UFC 251

Few things infuriate MMA fans more than an incorrectly branded fight, though the term “theft” tends to be neglected and is often fraught with bias. With Robbery Review, we will review controversial fights and determine whether the judges were properly criticized for their decision, or whether experts need to examine their own knee jerk reactions.

As much as he liked UFC 251, the first show of the “Fight Island” promotion in Abu Dhabi, there was plenty to criticize, particularly when it came to the trio of title fights of the night. The main event left some fans thirsty for more action. A vacant bantamweight title fight probably stopped a little too late. And perhaps most controversially, there was a split call in the featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.

There were questionable scores throughout the night, but they were never more analyzed than when Volkanovski’s hand was raised a second time against Holloway. The former champion had a much stronger performance than his first fight, so didn’t the Hawaiian native return to his own island with gold wrapped around his waist?

UFC President Dana White openly criticized the judges, and several fighters shared that sentiment, including Volkanovski’s compatriot Tyson Pedro:

Every time a popular fighter like Holloway makes a forceful effort like that and loses a closed decision, there will be some hesitation and “theft” calls. With the fight still fresh, let’s dive deeper into the alleged crime scene.

What was the official result?

Alexander Volkanovski def. Max Holloway by split decision.

How was the fight?

Let’s not over-analyze the first two rounds, which belonged to Holloway. That being said, there are a few key differences from the first fight.

Right off the bat, you can see that Holloway did a better spacing job to stay right on the brink of Volkanovski’s lethal kicks. The champion punished Holloway with them in their first fight, and it shows that they were a point of emphasis for “Blessed” in this encounter. Volkanovski still had success going down, but Holloway was less inclined to change his stance here, rather than fighting whatever discomfort he felt in order to stay in his most effective orthodox stance.

Even if you feel like the first two rounds were close, Holloway clearly put their stamp on them in the last seconds of each frame. At the end of the first round, she backed off Volkanovski with an evil spinning kick to the body that prepared a kick to the head that left Volkanovski on her knees for a second. At the end of the second round, he got an even more emphatic uppercut that rocked Volkanovski and made him visibly frustrated as he walked back to his corner.

Now we come to the fateful round three. In a reversal of his first fight, it was Volkanovski who started working from behind, showing the tenacity of a champion. The kicks paid off, and you could see how red Holloway’s front leg was. However, Holloway’s confidence was skyrocketing at that point in the fight, and he matched Volkanovski blow for blow. They released their hands, and Volkanovski landed several solid shots, including a left hook that was definitely felt on a couple of occasions. Holloway responded with counterattacks and strong kicks to the body.

Even with greater urgency, Volkanovski did not deviate from his game plan in the championship rounds. That inner kick was money. On Holloway’s side, he effectively brought Volkanovski down, connecting with direct punches. Volkanovski scored the first takedown of the bout in the fourth round, but did not lead to any significant offense (this would happen again in the fifth round). Anyway, he took a lot of steam in the final round.

Holloway’s rhythm was very steady, and he found a home for his jab throughout the fight. His takedown defense was on point, too, though he was caught by sharp hooks outside of breaks. Neither man was able to gain a noticeably late lead as they both caught each other’s time and scored with clean shots. Fantastic effort from both men in the last five minutes, and you have a feeling that another 25 could have happened if they had had to (and maybe one day they should).

What did the judges say?

Mark Collett scored it 48-47 Volkanovski.

David Lethaby scored it 48-47 Holloway.

Clemens Werner scored it 48-47 Volkanovski

Interestingly, even though the third round seems to be the topic of greatest dismay, it was actually the fifth round that turned out to be decisive. The three judges gave rounds one and two to Holloway and rounds three and four to Volkanovski. Collet and Werner gave the fifth round and the fight to Volkanovski.

Pursuant to MMA Decisions, Collet and Lethaby have worked at various UFC events and have also judged for Cage Warriors and Poland’s Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki (KSW) promotion. Collett started judging the UFC in 2011, while Lethaby started in 2018 and now has 10 UFC events on his resume. Werner was judging a UFC event for the fourth time.

What did the numbers say?

(Statistics by UFC statistics)

In this case, the numbers tell a confusing story. Just counting surprising stats, Volkanovski finished well ahead in both total punches (139-111) and significant punches (137-102). He also didn’t lose a round in the significant strike category, with the first round a draw (19-19) and the second round actually slightly in his favor (22-21).

However (and this is huge), it should be noted that Holloway’s astonishing shots at the end of rounds one and two were not recorded as takedowns, so these statistics do not accurately convey how Holloway was stated at the beginning.

Rounds three, four and five were very much in Volkanovski’s favor only on the basis of significant blows, as he won them 25-15, 34-24 and 37-23, respectively. That last number is surprising given that a judge scored the third round for Holloway. Volkanovski also secured three takedowns in the championship rounds, but as mentioned above, they only led to brief moments of control and should not have affected the score.

Volkanovski got the vast majority of the head shots (64-44) and legs (67-31), while Holloway’s impressive bodywork was reflected in a 27-6 lead.

What did the media say?

Looking at the 27 scores of media members counted by the MMA Decisions, Holloway garnered twice as many assents as Volkanovski, with 18 scores for the challenger and nine for the champion.

No establishment presented a score out of 48-47.

What did the people say?

As of this writing, Holloway has a fair amount of support in MMA decisions, with 52.3 percent scoring Saturday’s fight in their favor 48-47. In second place is 48-47 Volkanovski with 30.8 percent.

Third, 8.4 percent gave Holloway four rounds, while little consideration was given to a draw (3.2 percent).

Unsurprisingly, the third round proved to be the most difficult to score, with 50.7 percent in Holloway’s favor and 44.2 percent in Volkanovski’s favor.

Verdict MMA app voters saw this as a victory for Holloway, due to the app’s emphasis on the definitely winning rounds.

That scoring system takes the cumulative total of each fanatic score submitted (filtering aberrant scores such as random 10-7 if they comprise less than one percent of the total) in each round and is divided by the number of scores submitted to determine the winner of each round and also in its entirety.

Holloway won by 123 points, largely in part for voters to give him rounds one and two almost unanimously. She also had a slight lead in the third round, and Volkanovski’s strong fourth and fifth round were not enough to make up for the deficit. Holloway essentially won the fight after the first two rounds, save for a total collapse.

In MMA Fighting’s own poll asking fans to choose a winner, an overwhelming 81.2 percent believe Holloway did enough to avenge his loss.

How did I rate it?

Max Holloway won this fight. At least that was my first impression.

Those signature shots he got in the first two rounds should matter more. They should just do it. Even given Volkanovski’s outstanding output in the three rounds that followed, it made no sense that Holloway wasn’t in his pocket negotiating with him and landing his own shots. Holloway’s head kick and uppercut were the most revealing moments of the fight, and should have been rated as such.

I had the first three rounds for Holloway, though I’d be lying if I said I feel confident giving either one the third round. It was a real shakeup at the time.

It was a robbery?

In a broad sense, it was something like that.

The flaws in the 10-9 wort system were uncovered at UFC 251, with the scores for each round similar, even though anyone with a pair of eyes could tell you that the Holloway rounds were the most compelling. Convincing enough to overcome the surprising statistical deficit in rounds three, four and five? That is another question.

Holloway had the two best shots of the night, you can’t argue with that. But with the benefit of a new observation, one can see that Volkanovski connected with many strong punches, especially in the later stages of the contest. There was no way she was just throwing “pounding” shots, and while she couldn’t return the favor by visibly stunning Holloway, there were definitely times when the challenger stopped.

I also think Holloway’s initial success shaped the narrative that went into the third round, as well as the fact that he was doing much better than at UFC 245. Volkanovski’s own efforts should not be overlooked, and it is not his fault that the current scoring system results in a shortage of 10-8 seconds. He fought a winning fight given the criteria.

Don’t hate the player, hate the game, as they say.

The final verdict

It is not a robbery. But man, the 10-point system must suck.