You may have noticed: State Gavin Newsom no longer looks like a promising future of presidencies. He was jumped over and left behind by an ally in California, sen. Kamala Harris.
Since Newsom was elected governor in 2018, it has been expected that he would take the first chance to run for president after this year.
Newsom, 52, was not ready this year. But if President Trump won re-election, the Oval Office would be open in 2024. And if a Democrat fired Trump, there would be another chance in 2028.
Authorities in California have long kept their eyes on the White House. After all, this is the state with by far the largest blocs of treaty delegates and electoral votes.
Democrat Jerry Brown ran for president three times. Republican Pete Wilson ran once. Ronald Reagan eventually won on his third attempt.
Van Nuys’ late assembly speaker Bob Moretti honestly told me after losing the 1974 primary regime that Brown’s the only reason he ran for governor was to get a seat in the presidency.
But now you can forget about any liftoff for Newsom. His potential route to the White House has been abruptly blocked by Harris’ rise to the post of Democratic vice president.
“Kamala is smart. She’s sad, ‘Presidential nominee Joe Biden told a multimillion-dollar TV audience in explaining why he chose her as his running mate. “She is ready to do this job”.
“As children of immigrants, she knows personally how immigrant families enrich our country, as well as the challenges of what it means to grow up Black and Indian Americans in the United States.” Her story is an American story. ”
That’s a costly public introduction by the man who’s likely to become the next president.
Harris, 55, will no doubt run for president again at her next chance, which will be if Biden, 77, does not run – in 2024 or 2028.
It’s not like Newsom is running against them. He and Harris have been political stablemates, working as a team, dividing California’s top offices. In running for governor and the Senate, they shared the same political strategist, Ace Smith.
When former California Senator Barbara Boxer retired in 2016, then-Atty. Gen. Harris and doe-lt. Gov. Newsom soon agreed: She would seek the First Chamber that year and he would run for governor in 2018.
And even if Newsom tried to compete against Harris for the presidency, he probably would not get far.
“No matter what happens in November, Kamala Harris will go to the top of the list in the next presidential race,” said Rose Kapolczynski, a longtime Democratic consultant who managed Boxer’s senate campaigns. “If the Biden-Harris ticket loses on Trump in any way, Kamala Harris will be the forerunner for 2024.
“And if they win … you can see for the next 16 years that Kamala Harris will dominate Democratic politics – as vice president and then as elected president.”
Bob Shrum, a veteran Democratic adviser who is director of the Center for the Political Future at USC, agrees that Harris is likely to be elevated out of Newsom’s reach.
“Obviously, Kamala Harris, especially if she and Biden win, what I think they will, will be the forerunner in 2024 or 2028,” Shrum says. “And that makes any path to the White House for Newsom more difficult.”
“California’s political power and resources would unite behind Harris because she is the vice president.”
Shrum points out that a sitting vice president has not lost a presidential nomination since Democrat Alben Barkley in 1952.
The winning VPs: Republican Richard Nixon in 1960, Democrat Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968, Republican George HW Bush in 1988 and Democrat Al Gore in 2000.
“Kamala is now a charismatic candidate,” Shrum said. “She will be a deeper and even better candidate if she runs for president” after she became VP.
Newsom may also have another problem: He is a white man in a party where power is trending towards women and men of color.
“I think it is very unlikely that we will see two white men on the Democratic ticket again,” Kapolczynski said. In selecting a woman of color as his running mate, she says, Biden said “his vote for the future of the Democratic Party.”
In fact, there has not been a very male Democratic ticket since 2004.
“We’ve seen a big cultural shift over the last few years,” Kapolczynski says.
California is a leading example.
Newsom is the only white man to have a state office. Both U.S. senators have been women for nearly 28 years. That’s one of the two most powerful members of Congress: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.
An estimated 61% of the state’s likely Democratic voters are women, the California Public Policy Institute reported last year. Roughly half are white and half are people of color.
The political future of Newsom?
On Thursday night, he must take full advantage of an invaluable gift: a concluding speech at the Democratic National Convention. Newsom’s speech should be concise and hard-hitting, unlike many of his ramblings.
In 2022, Newsom will run for re-election. Winning should be a moment, assuming some big ‘ifs’ – if he can control the spread of the coronavirus, restart California’s economy and repair the state government’s computer that has apparently plagued everything, including COVID-19 data collection, DMV updates, payment of unemployment benefits.
Then he would hardly have to consider running for Senate Dianne Feinstein of the House of Representatives when she is in 2024 for reelection. Feinstein will be 91 and it’s a good bet she’s retiring.
Or maybe Harris Newsom can find a cabinet job.
