Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks about the riots across the country from the Philadelphia City Hall on June 2, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Jim Watson | AFP | fake pictures
The chances of winning the November presidential election have moved “firmly” in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to economists.
In a report released Wednesday, analysts from The Economist’s Intelligence Unit (EIU) said the prospects for the election had changed dramatically in recent months, noting that although it would be fought closely, “the odds have now changed.” strongly in favor of Biden. “
Earlier this year, economists said, Trump seemed ready to win another term as president thanks to a thriving economy, low unemployment, and disorder within the Democratic Party. However, they said “all of this has changed” amid the coronavirus crisis, the resulting recession and the most serious wave of civil unrest in half a century.
“Trump’s response to both crises has further exposed his divisive style, which is unpopular with independent voters who will be critical in deciding the election outcome,” the report noted.
“Meanwhile, Democratic voters have rallied behind their nominee, Joe Biden.”
Although Trump still benefited from a solid base, which analysts say represents 40% to 44% of the population, the EIU said the president would need to attract voters from outside that central base to defeat Biden in November.
“The Trump campaign has lost most of its previous advantages in recent months,” analysts said. “As a result, we do not expect that it can generate enough support from undecided voters to follow the same narrow path to victory in 2020.”
Economic outlook
The most important development for the Trump campaign in the run-up to the election would be the state of the American economy, according to the EIU.
“Previous hopes that the economy will recover strongly in the third quarter of 2020 as the coronavirus blockade measures are lifted now seem exaggerated,” economists said in the report. They speculated that consumer spending would not recover to pre-pandemic levels until a Covid-19 vaccine became widely available, which they predicted would not happen until at least the end of 2021.
“Weak demand will continue to affect companies and will likely keep unemployment around 10% at the time of the elections,” they projected.
The report noted that the fiscal stimulus had protected many households from the pandemic-induced economic recession, which could be “inflating Trump’s already unimpressive poll numbers.” But economists added that if emergency aid were not extended in July, many Americans would find themselves more financially unstable by the end of the year.
“This does not bode well for Trump, as the economic conditions immediately surrounding the elections are a strong determinant of voter behavior,” they said, although they added that this alone was not enough to thwart the president’s reelection. .
Earlier this month, a CNBC / Change Research poll found that Biden had taken the lead over Trump in six changing states, with the Democratic candidate leading by a 48% to 45% margin in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Carolina del North, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump had previously led in all versions of the poll since March.
Wildcards
In addition to economic performance, the EIU noted that there were “a number of wild cards” that would influence the outcome of the presidential race.
Protests across the United States would have major implications, the EIU said, predicting that excessive use of force against protesters would take undecided voters further from the Trump administration.
“Trump’s focus on law enforcement will resonate with his main supporters. However, his disdain for the protests will mobilize black voters and could antagonize suburban voters, most likely strengthening Biden’s turnout in these two key demographic groups, “economists said.
A further deterioration in relations between the United States and China could also influence the elections, according to the EIU. If a trade deal between the two countries collapses, American farmers, whose votes are “critical” to Trump, would be affected.
Biden’s choice of running mate was also crucial, according to the report, and analysts anticipated that choosing a progressive Democrat would make it easier for him to win over former supporters of Bernie Sanders and, in turn, strengthen his support base. central.
The effects of Covid-19 mean that it is unclear whether social distancing measures would depress voter turnout in November, the EIU added. Since both candidates depended on independent and independent voters, maximizing participation was critical and ballot-by-mail would be vital. But any malfunction of the postal voting system, analysts warned, could see the outcome of the contested elections and lead to a “messy transition.”
.
