The 2019 team was loaded with talent but underperforming. It soon found its footing and had a 31-29 mark after 60 games. The 84-78 record did not yield a mountain after postseason, but the team would have qualified for a playoff field of 16 teams (or at least tied for the final spot) in each of the 103 60 play intervals of the 162 -game season.
“That’s actually one of the best things I’ve heard at this point this year,” Bogaerts suggested.
Or not. After all, the 6-13 start in 2020 – 6-14 after the 10-3 loss to the Yankees on Friday night – seems less like an aberration and more a cold unmasking of a deeply flawed team, a point reinforced when Bogaerts was asked to compare the experience of playing for teams in the last place in 2014 and 2015 with what he has experienced to start this dystopian 2020 campaign.
“This one kind of sucks more,” he admitted. ‘It’s newer, you know? It’s where you live right now. ”
The moment is grim. The 17-8 loss Thursday to the Rays, followed later that night by the record-breaking sixth career three-homer game through Dodgers leadoff hitter Mookie Betts, came out as a comic strip in a ravine in which the accident at rock bottom was followed by an anvil on his head.
“We expect to field a competitive team every year,” Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told NESN. “We apparently don’t have enough pieces at the moment to compete.”
In fact, a case can be made that the talent base of the organization in the big leagues and minors is at a low point since the current owners took over in 2002. In recent seasons at last place (2012, 2014, 2015), the team presented incredible clusters of talent, even in the minors, as a foothold at the beginning of their careers in the big leagues.
Opposite Baseball America ranks the Red Sox this week as the No. 23 place system. Maybe there are players who end up being projections of the sector and make this ranking too pessimistic. Despite that, although the organization has a little less depth of the league, it lacks consensus influencers who are close to the big leagues – part of the team’s reason for handling Bets for young players.
This year should be treated as lost. What about 2021?
The pitching
Even with Betts, the current pitching staff would all but ensure that this would not be a good team. In fact, it would probably be much less than last year’s 84-78 club – a team that had started exactly half of their games through Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, and David Price. They are all gone.
“It’s absolutely challenging,” said Nate Eovaldi. ‘Eddie lost to COVID, that was unexpected. We were not ready for that. Now it’s Martin [Perez] and I. ”
Two believable starters make no rotation. It does not even make a half turn.
At the same time, the level of progress of the premier class should be better than it is now. Rodriguez is expected back in 2021, and Sale would have to be in rotation for much of it.
A rotation with Rodriguez and Sale along with some approximation of what the team got from Nate Eovaldi and Martin Perez should certainly be competitive. But there is no certainty that these four – especially Sale – will be healthy and perform well for the whole of 2021, reinforcing the importance of depth.
The ongoing open audition for starting points currently suggests the Sox lacks reliable depth above these four. Maybe Darwinzon Hernandez and / or Bryan Mata will make progress to solidify the back of the rotation. Maybe Kyle Hart, Tanner Houck, as Chris Mazza will make a case to offer spot-start depth.
But even with a return to health for their expected bases, the Sox need to build a better and deeper rotation. Due to a breakthrough by someone who is currently on the roster of the big leagues, the Sox will likely need to add at least one starter and probably two (maybe a swingman).
The lineup
The Red Sox lineup has an average of 4.5 runes per game, which is less than average. It should be much better.
“We expect to have a good crime, an unforgivable crime,” Werner said. “Even our crime did not click as we had hoped.”
The battle of two players is most shocking considering their status as cornerstones in the long run. There are 193 big leagues that had at least 50 flat appearances this year. Rafael Devers (.552 OPS, 176th) and Andrew Benintendi (.442, 191st) rank among the bottom 10 percent in OPS. Those numbers are shocking, but also based on a stretch of the season that would normally be picked up as a small sample.
And really, the Sox do not have much alternative but to look forward to this start and try to put both players back to past production. If Benintendi is an above-average player and Devers is a mid-range standout, then in combination with Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez (assuming he does not excel), Christian Vazquez, and Alex Verdugo, the Sox have a strong talent base, stand to benefit from complementary players, but does not require a drastic overview. If Devers and Benintendi do not rebound again, the team’s hopes of returning to controversy in 2021 would seem remote.
The Sox have some promising reinforcements on the corners of the infield (Bobby Dalbec), midfield (Jeter Downs), and outfield (Jarren Duran) at the Alternate Training Site in Pawtucket. Those players are at least depth options, and maybe more, although they are widely seen as solid everyday players rather than future stars.
Cultures
There are debilitating conditions that could potentially contribute to widespread performance changes: Unexpected managerial change, the dizzying trade of Betts and Price on the doorstep for the season, massive roster turnover that loosens clubhouse ties, the stress of playing in a pandemic, the changes to routines introduced by COVID-19 protocols.
“There’s no doubt this season is a lot tougher than anyone’s ever been,” said manager Ron Roenicke. “And even if you don’t play well, it makes it harder.”
Those atypical elements can make it difficult for players to evaluate well. Despite that, the 2020 Red Sox have obvious shortcomings that make it just as obvious that change is coming.
Werner said the team is ready to remove players over whom they have limited control – with soon-to-be free agents Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar, Mitch Moreland, and Brandon Workman representing apparent candidates – in exchange for players who can help in the long run. Whether Martinez – who can retire after this year – also falls into that category remains to be seen.
However they approach it, the advantage of the rough start is that it has exposed the team’s shortcomings. The Red Sox are ill-equipped to compete in 2020, and seem distilled to endure pain, while focusing their attention on developing and acting for players who will support in 2021 or beyond to help.
Alex Speier can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on twitter @alexspeier.
