A COVID-19 tracking website created by Instagram co-founders shows that Nevada currently has the highest rate of coronavirus transmission in the country.
The rt.live website estimates that each COVID-19 case in Nevada is resulting in 1.56 new infections.
The finding comes when the state has been reporting record numbers of newly diagnosed cases, an indication that the virus is spreading rapidly.
“I don’t think we can disagree that we’re seeing a lot of transmission in Nevada,” Brian Labus, a member of Governor Steve Sisolak’s medical advisory team, said Tuesday.
The website is the brainchild of Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger, co-founders of Instagram, the photo and video sharing social media service, and data scientist Tom Vladeck, owner of Gradient Metrics.
The data used is from The COVID Tracking Project, a respected data aggregator launched by The Atlantic magazine.
The model is based on government reports of diagnosed case counts and attempts to correct increases in the volume of evidence, which may inflate new case numbers in some cases.
If the transmission rate is greater than 1, then “the virus will spread quickly,” according to the website. If the transmission speed is less than 1, “the virus will stop spreading.”
At a transmission rate of less than 1 for the virus, “fewer cases are obtained in each generation (of infection) and will burn alone,” said Labus, an assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the UNLV School of Public Health.
Considerable change seen
The website shows that two months ago, Nevada’s transmission rate was just 0.77, but that it has been increasing for at least a month.
Across the county, 36 states currently have estimated transmission rates of 1 or more.
For each state, the website provides its best estimate of transmission speed, but it also provides a range. For Nevada, that range is 1.24 to 1.86, wide enough that “statistically, we are technically linked to a lot of these other states,” Labus said.
Nevada is closely followed by Wyoming, Florida, and Idaho in terms of the highest estimated transmission rates, followed by Hawaii, Montana, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Michigan.
By looking at the case numbers for each state as a whole, the website does not take into account the different levels of transmission in different areas, which can vary widely.
Reporting delays in that the inflated case count over the weekend could also have affected Nevada’s ranking.
But Labus did not want to complain. “It is not a surprise that we are in the wrong end of things,” he said. “Whether we are first or tenth, neither of those is acceptable.”
A spokeswoman for the Southern Nevada Health District said the agency was unable to comment on the ranking because it was not familiar with the data source and the website process.
Increase in cases among youth
“However, we know that in our community, we are seeing continuous transmission of the disease and our cases are increasing, especially among younger people,” said spokeswoman Stephanie Bethel. “We remind everyone that we are still in this pandemic and that steps must be taken to prevent the spread of the disease. If you have received a positive test result, you should quarantine at home.
“Everyone should stay home if possible and wear face masks if they must go out, avoid mass gatherings and continue the social distance,” he said in an email. “These are steps that people can take to prevent the spread of disease.”
Representatives from the Nevada Governor’s Office and the Nevada Department of Health and Human Services did not respond Tuesday to requests for comment.
Although younger people tend not to get as sick from the virus as older people, Labus said he expects to see increases in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks, even for young people.
“It is not that any age group is immune to dying from this disease,” he said.
“The Nevada data is headed in the wrong direction, and it’s important that we take social distancing measures seriously and wear masks when we go out in public,” Labus said. “We don’t have many other options before thinking about closings, and obviously we don’t want to do that.”
Contact Mary Hynes at [email protected] or 702-383-0336. Follow @ MaryHynes1 on Twitter.
