A man who died of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is wrapped in a body bag in the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) intensive care unit of the United Memorial Medical Center in Houston, Texas, USA. USA, June 29, 2020.
Callaghan O’Hare | Reuters
The number of confirmed deaths in the US from the coronavirus is substantially less than the actual number, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.
Using data from the National Center for Health Statistics, Yale University researchers compared the number of excess deaths in the US from any cause to the number of weekly Covid-19 deaths in the US since March 1 through May 30. The figures were compared with deaths for the same period in previous years.
The researchers found that the excessive number of deaths above normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those deaths were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. Discrepancies in state reports and a sharp rise in deaths of Americans in the midst of a pandemic suggest that the number of Covid-19 deaths is not counted, they said.
“Our analyzes suggest that the official Covid-19 death count represents a substantial count of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health and lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people who avoid emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he does not believe that this is the main driver.
The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.
According to the researchers, the 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were approximately 122,300, or nearly 19% higher than would normally be expected. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, the researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.
Covid-19 affects almost every system in the body, including the circulatory system, leading to an increase in heart attacks and strokes that doctors now believe were indirectly caused by the virus.
The number of excess deaths from any cause was 28% higher than the official number of Covid-19 deaths in the United States during those months. The researchers noted that the increase in excess deaths in many states was less than the increase in outpatient visits from people who reported an “influenza-like illness.”
The report comes as the coronavirus continues to spread rapidly throughout the United States. New cases in the US grew 5% or more in at least 40 states, based on an average of seven days, including Arizona, Texas, Florida and Oklahoma as of Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. At least 127,425 have died in the United States, according to Hopkins data.
The researchers noted that the gap between reported coronavirus deaths and excess deaths varied by state. For example, California reported 4,046 Covid-19 deaths and 6,800 excess deaths, leaving 41% of excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19, they said.
Texas and Arizona had wider gaps, with approximately 55% and 53%, respectively, of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19.
The researchers said some of the discrepancies could be related to the intensity and timing of the increases in testing.
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