The next two weeks are becoming critical for California, as officials wait to see if the extensive restrictions imposed in late June and July show signs of a slowdown in the rapid spread of the coronavirus in communities across the state.
This week was marked by a series of grim milestones when California broke a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, more than 11,000 on Tuesday, as well as rising infection rates and a growing number of hospitalizations. Because the coronavirus can take weeks to hatch, much of the current increase is still tied to people exposed to the virus in June, as counties quickly reopened the economy and many returned to old but dangerous routines, like going to bars. and attend parties and other social events. Many also returned to workplaces that did not implement new safety protocols.
The big question now is whether Californians changed their behavior enough in July to reduce infection rates. Authorities began raising alarms in the days leading up to the July 4 vacation and in recent weeks have closed bars, indoor restaurants, shopping malls, gyms and other retail establishments in many areas.
“It’s now in everyone’s hands,” said Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County director of public health. However, we don’t have much time. At some point, she turns that corner where she really expects hospitals to provide more care than is possible. “
On June 28, Governor Gavin Newsom ordered the closing of bars in Los Angeles County and several others, and a day later, Ferrer warned of “alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization.” By July 1, Newsom ordered that restaurants and indoor restaurant bars in 19 counties be closed, affecting 72% of the state’s population.
About two weeks have passed since then, but it will take at least three weeks to know whether the actions taken that week decisively changed the course of the pandemic, said Dr. Christina Ghaly, director of health services for Los Angeles County. Ghaly said Wednesday that if people returned to safer behavior: staying home as much as possible, avoiding social gatherings, covering their faces, keeping physical distance and workplaces by following new safety protocols, Los Angeles could avoid overwhelming hospitals and ICUs.
Even more companies have closed this week, with Newsom ordering the closure of all bars and indoor dining rooms in restaurants. And in the hardest hit counties that are home to more than 88% of Californians, it also closed the indoor operations of gyms, houses of worship, beauty salons, nail salons, shopping malls, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys, game rooms and offices for non-essential industries. .
If anything is clear, officials from across the state said, it is now up to residents and businesses to do whatever they can to slow the spread of the disease. The percentage of younger adults who become infected with the coronavirus is growing, and younger adults now account for a higher proportion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, representing nearly 30% of them in Los Angeles County.
“Birthday parties, visits with grandparents … barbecues: They are helping to delay or reverse the reopening of businesses,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco director of public health.
California on Tuesday recorded its highest number of new cases in a single day, 11,142 infections; Tuesday also marked the second-highest number of single-day deaths in the state, with 144 deaths counted, according to the Los Angeles Times’ California coronavirus tracker.
On Wednesday, at least another 8,000 new cases of coronavirus and more than 125 deaths were reported across the state.
There has been a cumulative total of more than 354,000 confirmed cases and more than 7,300 coronavirus-related deaths across the state. Of these, there have been more than 143,000 cases and more than 3,900 deaths among Los Angeles County residents.
More than 6,700 people with confirmed coronavirus infections were in hospital across the state on Tuesday. That’s more than double the daily average in May, when there were about 3,000 people hospitalized across the state with confirmed infections.
In Los Angeles County, officials estimated that the effective transmission rate of the coronavirus has slightly increased to 1.07, according to data released Wednesday, although the actual number could be between 0.94 and 1.2. That means officials estimate that, on average, every 1 person infected with the virus transmits it to another 1.07 people.
San Francisco reported an even worse transmission rate of about 1.3 on Wednesday.
“The virus is not just out there, it is further than ever before,” said Colfax, the city’s director of public health. “If we don’t do better, we are seeing major problems in late August and September, with an average peak of 900 hospitalized patients in early October,” a number 10 times as bad as what the city is seeing now.
Colfax said it is “certainly possible” that if conditions do not improve, officials may have to reverse reopening efforts in San Francisco and the greater Bay Area.
With mounting evidence of the disproportionate impact the pandemic is having on Latino and black communities, Los Angeles County officials announced plans Wednesday to expand testing where it is most needed.
Authorities announced they will open six new test sites in communities of color: Montebello, South Gate, Azusa, Panorama City, Compton, and the Downey-Norwalk area. And they will add capacity at four existing sites in Bellflower, Pomona, El Monte and East Los Angeles.
An astonishing 89% of people who tested positive for coronavirus at a site in Willowbrook, south of Watts, have been Latinos, despite the fact that 71% of the people who tested were identified as Latinas, the Dr. Erika Flores Uribe, emergency room physician and director of language access and inclusion in the county health services department.
The result is close to that of a study in the San Francisco Mission District, in which 95% of people who tested positive for the coronavirus were Latino.
Additionally, Latino residents are testing positive at a much higher rate than any other racial or ethnic group in Los Angeles County, a trend that has been consistent for months, said Ghaly, director of health services for Los Angeles County. .
Latino residents are testing positive at a much higher rate than any other racial or ethnic group in Los Angeles County
(Los Angeles County Department of Health Services)
The disparity may reflect that white residents are less at risk of being exposed to the coronavirus.
White residents are less likely to live in crowded homes or work in essential jobs that require employees to leave their homes to earn money, Ghaly said. The disparity in the so-called positivity rate could also reflect increased access and use of test resources by white residents.
“Unfortunately, the underlying reasons why communities of color are disproportionately affected by the worst COVID-19 results are related to long-standing structural and systemic issues, including the social determinants of health that the county is working to address. and mitigate in the midst of this pandemic, “Ghaly said.
Poverty also increases the risk of testing positive.
Poverty also increases the risk of testing positive. In communities with the highest poverty rates, more than 15% of coronavirus tests had results that confirmed the infection; In the wealthiest neighborhoods, less than 8% of the tests tested positive.
(Los Angeles County Department of Health Services)
“This reflects, once again, the burden our low-income communities face in terms of their exposure to the virus, and also the fact that they were not accessing the tests at an appropriate level given their degree of burden,” said Ghaly.
To determine where the county should add test sites, officials conducted an analysis to create a map of the areas in Los Angeles County that were most in need of further coronavirus testing, based on factors such as the positivity rate, the coronavirus mortality rate and rate at which residents access testing services.
The results showed that parts of southern Los Angeles, southeast Los Angeles County, the San Gabriel Valley, the Pomona Valley, the San Fernando Valley, and the Antelope Valley needed increased access to evidence.
Los Angeles County officials released a map showing the areas (in red) most in need of additional resources to detect the coronavirus.
(Los Angeles County Department of Health Services)
