“Things are the worst that have been in the United States and they are out of control,” said Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor University.
However, the panic and urgency that led to the closure of most of the country in March and April are absent this summer, giving way to a desensitizing new reality in which hundreds of Americans die every day. Closings and reopens, which will only be repeated again, could become the new norm as states and cities struggle to fight a virus that exceeds the country’s responsiveness.
“There is a general feeling of fatigue and numbness in these numbers,” said Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, chair of the department of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco. “On top of that, there’s this swing, we’re open, we’re closed, we’re open, we’re closed, and that doesn’t help with fatigue.”
The desire to break free from orders to stay home and change public health orientation helps explain why so many states are seeing record numbers of cases, even as the United States passes one bleak milestone after the next.
“I think the American public is used to a medical system that will save them … and pills and potions that will basically go in and save the day,” said Charles Branas, president of Columbia’s department of epidemiology. College. “We don’t have that at the moment and it’s challenging to maintain a non-pharmaceutical intervention.”
Even the states that suffered the most during the spring and took initial steps to contain the virus are seeing signs of a resurgence. In Louisiana, Governor John Bel Edwards ordered the bars to be closed again when Covid-19 hospitalizations reached levels not seen since early May. The state of Washington, the site of the country’s first outbreak, reports more infections in July than at any other time during the pandemic.
“This may come as a surprise to many of us who had the feeling that after we got past the original hump we would be in safe territory,” Governor Jay Insleee said Thursday. “Unfortunately, that is not the case.”
Officials in New York and New Jersey, who were once the epicenter of the pandemic, are concerned about the increasing number of infections among young adults. In Florida and Arizona, the growing cases among those under 40 represented the first sign of trouble a month ago.
The comforting myth that the virus was spreading largely among younger people who are less vulnerable has been shattered in recent weeks as nursing home infections and hospitalizations in the US have increased. increased 60 percent since early July. highs seen in April.
“They were always bulls —” said Hotez. “Maybe it starts with young people, but once you start, there is an accelerated transmission in the community and it is only a matter of time before it spreads to everyone.”
And forecasters say this is just the beginning.
“I hope the death toll continues to rise,” said Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. “We are still seeing an increase in cases and the deaths we are seeing now are based on cases detected three or four weeks ago.”
Back then, the US had an average of 50,000 cases per day. Now, we are closer to 70,000.
Death is not the only consequence younger adults should be concerned about, said Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.
“We don’t understand the long-term impacts,” he said. “Respiratory difficulties or other neurological symptoms. And those people can infect others. Older people still need to go to the grocery store. “
There is some reason for optimism. Doctors are much better at treating the virus than they are in the spring, and the country overall is doing a better job of protecting older populations and other vulnerable populations. This week, companies like Walmart and Kroger demanded masks in their stores, and even conservative governors of Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas are demanding the use of masks and re-imposing restrictions on companies in an effort to flatten the curve.
“The public health community is not ready to give up and say this is the new normal,” said Marcus Plescia, medical director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.
One thing that is clear is that the pandemic has left the United States more forked.
By the end of the month, the country will likely have registered 4 million infections and almost 150,000 deaths. According to the CDC, African-Americans and Hispanics are hospitalized at five and four times the white rate, respectively. People of color are also more likely to have jobs that do not allow them to work from home and where social distancing is a challenge. According to a recent study, nearly two-thirds of Hispanic people considered to be at high risk for coronavirus live with at least one person who cannot work from home, compared to 47 percent of white Americans.
“The uneven cost of people of color has been devastating and tragic,” said John Auerbach, president and CEO, Trust for America’s Health. “It is related to segregated and overcrowded housing and limited job opportunities.”
Bibbins-Domingo said that even when infections fell around San Francisco, the virus circulated widely in the Hispanic population because they were still going to work in disproportionate amounts.
Politicians, including some Republicans, and public health experts have criticized the laissez-faire of the White House. response, arguing that the federal government wasted its opportunity to spend the spring preparing, building the nation’s public health infrastructure, and preparing its health workforce for the revival that almost everyone expected.
Once again, states are asking for federal aid for testing, which has slowed down in some parts of the country, and there is no national strategy for tracking contacts.
Rather than urge caution and adhere to the guidelines of the White House coronavirus task force to reopen the economy, President Donald Trump pushed for a swift reopening, praised the governors who lifted the restrictions and called for the release of the states of the governors who did not.
“The message has been horrendous,” said Irwin Redlener, founding director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. “People heard that we are reopening and interpreted it when we returned to normal, which gave many people license to return to bars, parties and beaches and many of these places became the place for the new outbreak resurgence. “
