Professors in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Texas Technological University through the Edward E. Whitacre Jr. College of Engineering have developed a new epidemiological model to predict the spread of COVID-19 (which can be applied to any jurisdiction) and have made predictions for six representative US states. USA : California, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Washington.
Fazle Hussain, Distinguished President of the President in Engineering, Science and Medicine, Zeina Khan, assistant professor of mechanical engineering research, and Frank Van Bussel, postdoctoral researcher, recently presented their paper, “A Predictive Model for the Spread of COVID-19 Applied to six states in the United States, “to Natural medicine.
“Our goal was to combine our experience in bioengineering and computer modeling to develop a comprehensive model to predict COVID-19, including the most important and relevant parameters, and to calculate and interpret the results in terms of relevant parameters,” said Hussain.
This model incorporates a series of parameters of great relevance to pandemics, particularly COVID-19, and is capable of making predictions of these parameters and their interdependence.
“We decided to create a new model of this coronavirus to predict a wider range of parameters than previous models do not,” said Khan. “An important characteristic is the asymptomatic propagators: people who do not know that they are sick, enter society and spread the virus. Another characteristic is the blockade that we have all experienced. We decided to start from that perspective and build a new model” This guy Model is described as a compartment model, where society is divided into conceptual compartments. “
The compartments used in the model include: susceptible, undetected infected, detected infected, detected recovered, social distancing, recovery / undetected death, and detected deaths.
“The susceptible population is the majority of the population in a region or country at the onset of the disease,” said Khan. “There is a small amount of what we call ‘unknown infected’ because they are not sick enough to notice and undergo tests, be hospitalized, or stay home. There are a small number of those who start to spread the infection. Then, as people’s symptoms progress, or as a result of random tests, they find themselves infected. These detected infected people recover, which puts them in a new compartment or they die, and that’s another compartment. “
Hussain said other aspects also play a critical role in who may or may not be more susceptible to the COVID-19 contract.
“Factors like culture, eating habits, political systems, skin color, and latitude are variable,” he said. “For example, with China’s political system, if they are ordered to stay six feet away from each other tomorrow, they would all comply. Latitude is an important factor due to the amount of sunlight a person is exposed to. “
The document makes some bold predictions, including:
- In continuous block, COVID-19 infections will persist for at least two years.
- However, infections will increase rapidly (by an order of magnitude) if the closure is lifted, peaking after two months, recurring annually, similar to influenza.
- Repeated locks and releases don’t prevent an endemic infection, even following a White House release guideline of 14 days of declining cases, or even stricter 28 days.
- Previous blockades would have reduced COVID-19 deaths in New York, but surprisingly not in Texas.
- Infections could be reduced by strict measures such as strict compliance with blocking, face masks, social distancing, location and isolation of contacts, etc.
The reason why the previous shutdown would have saved tens of thousands of lives in New York State, but would not have made a big difference in Texas, is because of how well New York complied with the shutdown measures, Khan said.
The most revealing aspect of his work is the numbers. According to his predictions, by October 1, there could be 3 million cases of COVID-19 and 235,000 total deaths in the US. USA
Scientists predict best strategy to lift COVID-19 blockade
Khan et al., A predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 applied to six US states. USA arXiv: 2006.05955 [q-bio.PE]. arxiv.org/abs/2006.05955
Provided by Texas Tech University
Citation: The new epidemic model indicates that COVID-19 is here to stay, which can cause 235,000 deaths in the US. USA In October (2020, June 24) retrieved June 24, 2020 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-epidemic-covid-deaths -october.html
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