President Trump
Donald John TrumpTeachers Union launches 0K ad purchase and calls for education funding in relief FDA pledges ‘we will not cut corners’ on coronavirus vaccine Let’s protect our values COVID-19 liability MAY is in trouble.
He has left behind his presumptive Democratic opponent Joe Biden
Joe BidenTrump says he’s ‘serious’ about considering a capital gains tax cut Why Joe Biden is in trouble Harris favored as Biden ranks closer to VP pick MORE by a significant margin in national opinion polls throughout the year. His status in the crucial swing states is not much better.
The economy, which would have been Trump’s central asset when he sought reelection, is tainted by the coronavirus. The pandemic, which has killed more than 160,000 people in the United States, is set to be the dominant election issue – and polls show Trump’s handling of it with wide disapproval.
But even though the situation seems bleak to Trump now, there are at least five plausible ways he could get into controversy again.
A recovery from coronavirus
Trump has been talking about the chances of a COVID-19 vaccine, but there is no realistic prospect that such treatment will be widely available in time to save his chances for re-election.
That said, even a significant drop in infection rates – as solid evidence that a vaccine is difficult – could significantly change public sentiment.
Scientists recognize that there is much that remains unknown about the coronavirus. There is some evidence, though disputed, that mortality may decrease over time.
The latest data shows new infections and current hospitalizations are declining nationwide. That, of course, may be a result of some state checks to recent spikes. Fragile progress has been reversed rather.
An Economist / YouGov poll last week indicated that Trump’s handling of COVID-19 was rejected by 55 percent of adults in the U.S., while only 37 percent were approved.
Still, if there were concrete signs in the immediate aftermath of Election Day that the United States was finally turning the corner, it would no doubt give Trump a big boost.
A big Biden gaffe, especially in the debates
The Trump campaign began last week pushing for a fourth televised debate, to add to the three meetings already planned between the president and Biden.
Their request was refunded. But the fact that it was made in the first place underscores how the president’s team sees the debates as an important opportunity to change the tide.
They are not necessarily wrong. Biden’s appearances in early debates during the Democratic primary process were often sinuous and uninspired. The former vice president may have gotten a little better as time went on, but ring-rustiness could creep up again.
The definitive Democratic primary debate, which included only Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders
Bernie SandersThe Hill’s Campaign Report: LIVE: Trump from Gettysburg | The many unknowns of 2020 | Omar among those facing Trump’s primary challenges is as much a problem as his performance Sierra Club supports Biden for President MORE (I-Vt.), Took place on March 15th. The first presidency debate is scheduled for September 29 – a gap of more than six months.
Democrats point to Trump’s own tendency to exaggerate and speak ill, arguing that this should stump any issue for Biden.
But the Trump team has been pushing Biden for months with the accusation that his mental faculties are slipping. Any misstep by the Democrat in the debates will be filtered through that lens – and could raise new questions in voters’ heads.
A backlash against street protests
In the weeks following the assassination of George Floyd police in Minneapolis in late May, it appears to be changing public opinion at sea.
Support for the Black Lives Matter movement shot up and higher numbers of Americans than ever before appeared ready to publicly recognize racial differences in policing and the justice system.
Trump responded to the protests with hardline rhetoric and action, but it emerged from opinion polls that he had wrongly condemned the nation’s vote. Inflammatory tweets such as “when looting begins, shooting begins” and the forced removal of Protestants from Lafayette Square in front of the White House seemed to be abused.
But the generally peaceful tone of protests has begun to deceive in some places.
The situation is particularly controversial in Portland, Ore., Where more than 20 people were arrested last weekend.
Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler (D) and Oregon Gov. Kate Brown
Kate BrownThe Memo: Five Ways Trump Could Come Back Trump: Time for Portland to Bring in National Guard Companies and States Launch Own Relief Funds as Congress Stories Stop MORE (D) were hardly against the Trump administration’s decision to send federal officers into the city. But Wheeler has finally expressed anger over a minority of Protestants playing into Trump’s hands. He has accused those who have used violence of acting as “props” for the president.
Meanwhile, more than 100 people were arrested in Chicago on Monday amid disturbance and looting.
Politically speaking, it is possible that even harassment unrelated to protests against racial injustice will be co-opted in the president’s preferred story.
Even if some voters accuse the president of growing tensions, it is also possible that Trump’s rhetoric of “law and order” and claims to speak for “The Silent Majority” may resonate with others.
The interviews are just wrong
Democrats and other Trump critics are haunted by 2016, when a victory for Democrats Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonHarris favored as Biden moves closer to Ron Johnson’s VP pick documents subtitled by FBI Director as part of Russian origin probe Juan Williams: Older voters will not forgive Trump for COVID MORE was even predicted on election day.
The story of 2016 polling is more nuanced than it is sometimes portrayed.
National polls were broadly accurate in predicting Clinton’s popular victory, but projections about the outcome of the election were cast by inaccurate state-level polls, especially in some crucial field jobs such as Wisconsin. The definitive average of RealClearPolling in Wisconsin was Clinton by more than 6 percentage points. Trump won the state by less than 1 point.
The Trump campaign has admitted that even the national polls are this time around.
Campaign manager Bill Stepien is among those who have claimed to underrepresent some of the major polling organizations among Republicans. Other voices have raised the question of whether there are ‘hidden’ Trump voters who do not want to explain their attack to pollsters.
As for the merits of the bizarre arguments, there is reason to be cautious about questioning when it comes to Trump.
Trump’s ad blitz against Biden works
Democrats have taken some measure of comfort from the fact that Trump and his allies have been strangling Biden with attacks for months, to a slightly noticeable effect.
As of Tuesday morning, Biden was nearly 7 points ahead of RealClearPolitics’ national polling average.
But experts across the political spectrum expect polls to tighten in the coming weeks. That not only changes people’s minds – it’s also because many voters only pay extensive attention when election day approaches.
Trump’s loyalists hope that his attempt to smash Biden’s mental acuity and bind him to the most left-wing elements in the Democratic Party will work with middle-class voters in the closing stretch.
The Trump campaign is much better funded than it was in 2016, when it was outspent by Clinton by more than $ 200 million.
This time, Biden and Trump each have about $ 300 million in cash on hand, according to the latest figures – and Team Trump outraised the Biden camp in June by about $ 25 million.
A Trump ad flash could make the last weeks of the campaign uncomfortable for Biden.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage, primarily focused on the presidency of Donald Trump.
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