The Mali coup is cheerful at home, but so are the neighbors

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Crowds were happy after a group of colonels seized power in Mali, a large country stretching across the Sahara, where troops – including French soldiers and UN peacekeepers – are fighting jihadist groups, but not everyone is happy, writes analyst of West Africa Paul Melly.

Negotiations are thought to be underway on Tuesday for the exile of Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, deposed as president of Mali in a military coup and currently with his son, his prime minister Boubou Cissé and a number of other senior officials of the government.

But now Ecowas, the West African regional bloc to which Mali belongs, has laid a solid line, with members of state proposing a call for Mr Keita’s reform as president.

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The tired-sounding 75-year-old had announced his forced resignation in a televised statement at midnight on Tuesday, apparently from a room at the Kati army base, 15 km (nine miles) from Bamako, where he and Mr Cissé were taken by soldiers that afternoon.

This came after more than two months of confrontation with an alliance of opposition politicians and civil society, the M5-RFP, in whose name massive crowds staged a series of street demonstrations spied on by the charismatic Imam Mahmoud Dicko.

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Protesters had only one central question – the dismissal of Mr Keita, although Mr Dicko liked to call it out explicitly.

In negotiations mediated by Ecowas, Mr Keita had made concessions after the concession, but still concluded his own position as no decisive reforms that would have clearly ended his command of the state machine.

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That was no longer enough and eventually a group of seniors – but not top officers – moved to end his presidency.

But Ecowas is not ready to go along with this unconstitutional change of power and her envoy, former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, is soon expected back in Bamako to talk to the putchists.

Difficult negotiations lie ahead and no one can be sure how they will unfold.

Lost opportunity

When gunshots were heard about the Kati barracks on Tuesday, it was not immediately clear that this was anything other than a mutiny by ordinary soldiers angry at high-level corruption while risking their lives in the war against jihadists in the north.

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But when military vehicles from Kati to Bamako rushed inside to arrest Mr Keita and a string of senior figures, it became clear that something much more substantial was going on.

To surprise with Mr. Keita, the last few months struts far beyond the face-off with Protestants.

Belief in the slogans about restoring national pride that had plunged him to election victory over the technocratic Soumaïla Cissé in 2013 had long since waned.

International partners were shocked by Mr Keita’s failure to use his early popularity to sway politicians and the public behind the difficult compromises needed to effectively implement peace with Tuareg separatists in the north, a dilating approach which left a vacuum in which terrorism could flourish.

More on Mali’s fight against jihadists

But for Malians, especially in the south and center, where most people live, Mr Keita’s administration was most embarrassed by a string of corruption scandals, sometimes undermining basic facilities such as offering fertilizers to poor farmers. amidst stories about the touching high life of the ruling elite.

The president only secured easy re-election in 2018, as traditional opponents and a body of new groups from the centers failed to establish a common front.

The issue that finally sparked the massive outcry of popular anger that swept the streets of Bamako this year was a rather narrow political one – the decision of the constitutional court to reverse the results for 31 parliamentary seats the elections were held over two rounds in March and April.

This annulled the humiliation of government voters in Bamako constituencies – and it came at a time when feelings were already raw after northern militants kidnapped opposition leader Soumaïla Cissé while he was on the campaign trail in the north, by Timbuktu. He’s still a hostage now.

Hunting holiday

Then after Covid-19 forced Bamako residents to maintain lockdown measures, and while Malian soldiers continued to sacrifice their lives in the northern war, images appeared showing the president’s son, Karim – chairman of the parliamentary defense committee – on a holiday yacht abroad.

The images could not be checked and may have been old.

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Karim Keïta himself stated that no public spending had been made – and yet the images could only stimulate and distance the perceptions of a presidential crisis in some way from Mali’s multiple crises.

In all this, the Prime Minister of Mr Keïta is struggling to advance a political path and tackle the real problems of the country. But Boubou Cissé lacks the independent personal exclusion to save the beleagured administration.

Ekowas mediation made progress, but slowly – and then, this week, the soldiers stepped in.

So where does Mali come from here?

For the very short term, the large Mali peacekeeping mission of Mali, the French anti-terrorist troops and national military units must deploy in the north and the center must be able to maintain a stable security position.

But the position is fragile and jihadist groups will take heart if there is a prolonged delay in agreements on arrangements for a transition, new elections and an internationally accepted interim government.

One person who has already indicated that he will not take a frontline role at this stage is Mr Dicko.

The influential imam has stated his intention to step down from politics first, although he will remain an influential figure, if and when he chooses to exercise that influence.

In the meantime, much depends on the talks now expected between the putschists, the M5-RFP and Ecowas.