Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily roundup of the latest news in the 2020 Presidential, Senate and House elections. Did anyone send you this? Click here for subscribe..
We are Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. This is what we are seeing today in the electoral campaign.
LEADING THE DAY:
President Trump
Donald John Trump Trump’s second term plans remain a mystery to the Republican Party Trump to hold an outdoor rally in New Hampshire on Saturday Eighty-eight years of debt mercy MORE He’s struggling to hang on to some of the core groups of people who helped deliver him to the White House in 2016.
The latest data from Gallup finds Trump’s overall job approval rating is 38 percent, below its all-time high of 49 percent, which it reached in early May.
Worse still for the president: His job approval rating has declined among key voting blocs that supported him in 2016, including independents, whites, men, voters without a college degree, and seniors.
Trump job approval rating
Independent: 33% (-6)
Men: 46% (-7)
Whites: 48% (-9)
Whites without a university degree: 57% (-9)
From 50 to 64 years: 43% (-9)
Over 65 years: 47% (-4)
In 2016 Trump defeated Hillary clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonSusan Rice sees a surge in stocks in Biden’s vice presidential race Democrats are trying to become The Memo in November: Disgruntled voters could spark political turmoil beyond Trump MORE by double digits between men, white people, white people without a university degree and older people. Trump and Clinton effectively divided the independent vote.
More bad news for Trump: the only other two presidents whose job approval rating was in the 1930s at this point in the election cycle: George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter: The memorandum: Trump weakens as the clock ticks Jimmy Carter says Israeli annexation would make land grabbing “illegal” Trump’s brand in federal courts could last decades – Both lost their reelection offers.
Gallup had to go back to 1948 to find an instance in which a president who won reelection despite having a job approval rating similar to Trump’s. That year, Harry Truman won a second term even though only 40 percent of voters approved of the job he was doing in July.
Perhaps the only bright spot for Trump in the new poll is that the Republican Party is sticking with him. Ninety-one percent of Republicans approve of the work Trump is doing, up from 85 percent last month. Only 2 percent of Democrats approve of it, making it the largest partisan gap Gallup has found for any president in history.
FROM THE ROAD:
Biden’s campaign is recommending his surrogates to denounce Trump’s attacks as a “desperate” and ultimately ineffective attempt to compete with the former vice president at a time when the president’s electoral numbers are declining. Despite the breathless coverage each new attack by Trump receives, this endless rotation of the same discredited spots is not the product of strategic genius, it is a sign of myopia and despair as each successive attempt fails, re-elevating a massive responsibility on Trump as his campaign leaves struggling to find something new, “Kate Bedingfield, Biden’s deputy campaign manager, wrote in a memo sent to the surrogates on Sunday. Rebecca Klar of The Hill has more.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states can prohibit their representatives from the Electoral College from disregarding voters when casting their vote in presidential elections. The case stems from the 2016 presidential election, when a handful of voters voted for people who did not win the popular votes of their states in a failed attempt to deny Trump the White House. Harper Neidig reports.
PERSPECTIVES
Rich Lowry: Means that define patriotism as white supremacy.
Jeet Heer: A shattered nation is not buying Trump’s nationalism.
Scott Goodstein: Will Twitter make @RealDonaldTrump a one-term president?
Jessica Tarlov: Biden benefits from enthusiasm gap, not the other way around
Kim Wehle: Celebrities should direct their star power to get the youth vote
CONGRESS AND STATES:
Senator Joni Ernst
Joni Kay ErnstErnst says Trump must sign a defense bill with the name change provision for the military base. Sunday shows a preview: Lawmakers will address an alarming increase in coronavirus cases.The reelection campaign (R-Iowa) released its first television ad of the cycle on Monday, highlighting its positions on relations between the United States and China. You can see the ad, called “All Over” here. Meanwhile, the campaign for her Democratic opponent Theresa Greenfield ads displayed in various rural Iowa newspapers, beating Ernst for his ethanol record in the state.
Democrats are a surprising distance from retaking the majority of the Senate in November, while Republicans face an increasingly difficult electoral map, as downed Trump poll numbers threaten to drag vulnerable Republican party headlines . With the incorporation of the senator. Steve Daines
Steven (Steve) David Daines Trump’s nominee faces obstacles from the Senate to secure public lands after the political establishment suffers a blow as supreme chaos reigns Lincoln Project launches new pro-Biden announcement in changing states MOREPositioned (R-Mont.) On the Cook Political Report’s list of retiring political careers last month, Democrats have another shot at a seat that just a few months ago seemed to be in Republican hands. At the same time, Democrats are considering a few other seats that could come into play later this year. Here’s a look at the Senate seats that are likely to change this year. by The Hill’s Max Greenwood.
SURVEY CLOCK:
GALLUP – TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL
Approve: 38%
PUBLIC POLICY SURVEY – MAIN PRESIDENTIAL
Biden: 53%
Trump: 42%
PUBLIC POLICY SURVEY – SENATE OF MAINE
Gideon: 46%
Collins: 42%
TRAFALGAR GROUP – PRESIDENTIAL OF PENNSYLVANIA
Biden: 48%
Trump: 42.7%
MONEY CLOCK:
Democrat Cal Cunningham raised $ 7.4 million in the second quarter of 2020 for his attempt to overthrow the senator. Thom Tillis
Thomas (Thom) Roland TillisACLU asks Congress to pass COVID-19 tests for immigrants Poll: Biden, Trump locked in a battle for the Republican senator from North Carolina: Russia should be labeled a state sponsor of terrorism if intelligence is accurate PLUS (RN.C.) in North Carolina, setting a quarterly record of fundraising for a candidate for the state Senate. The record was previously maintained by the former senator Kay Hagan
Kay Ruthven Hagan The Hill Campaign Report: North Carolina Emerges as Key Battlefield for Senate Control Tillis Wins North Carolina Senate Primary Coronavirus Poses Risks to Trump in 2020 MORE (DN.C.) who raised $ 4.8 million in the third quarter of 2014, the same year he lost reelection to Tillis in what became the most expensive Senate race in United States history up to that time. moment. Max reports.
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
Steve Bullock Gianforte halts the campaign in person after his fellow career wife attends the event with Guilfoyle Trump’s nominee facing Senate obstacles to secure public land after the Lincoln Project releases a new pro-Biden ad in states changing MORE (D), who is challenging Senator Steve Daines (R-Mont.) For his Senate seat, earned $ 7.7 million in his first full quarter of campaign fundraising, his campaign said Monday. Bullock launched her Senate nomination in early March, shaking Daines’ reelection prospects. His campaign will report a cash reserve of more than $ 7.4 million when applications are submitted by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) later this month.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS:
July 7:
New Jersey Primary
Delaware Primary
July 11
Louisiana Primary
July 14:
Alabama primary runoff
Texas primary runoff
Maine Primary
August 4th:
Arizona Primaries
Kansas Primary
Michigan Primaries
Missouri Primaries
Washington primaries
August 11:
Connecticut Primary
Minnesota Primaries
Vermont Primary
Wisconsin Primaries
Georgia primary runoff
August 18th:
Alaska Primary
Florida primaries
Wyoming Primary
August 17-20:
Democratic National Convention
August 24-27:
Republican national convention
September 1st:
Massachusetts primary
September 8th:
New Hampshire Primary
Rhode Island Primary
September 15:
Delaware Primary
September 29th:
First presidential debate
October 7:
Vice presidential debate
October 15th:
Second presidential debate
October 22:
Third presidential debate
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