The cauldron of war continues to boil under the surface of the “frozen” Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. For the first time since 2016, shootouts between the two sides began, including the use of artillery, tanks, and armed drones.
There is no demilitarized zone between the two sides, just a contact line that has remained largely unchanged since 1994. About one soldier a month is killed by sniper fire in the disputed region. However, on July 12, the soldiers in the front line woke up to discover that the status quo had been altered: Armenia installed a new position on the border that gave them a tactical advantage in the area.
According to Armenia, Azerbaijan was unwilling to accept unilateral changes outside the Minsk Peace Process, and its forces rejected it. According to Azerbaijan, Armenia launched an unprovoked attack across the international border.
The fighting has led to at least 16 deaths, including a senior Azerbaijani general who was second-in-command to his Third Army Corps. Eleven of the dead were Azerbaijani soldiers, four were Armenian soldiers and one was a 76-year-old Azerbaijani civilian.
The conflict revolves around control of the former autonomous region of Nagorno Karabakh and its surroundings. This area, considered under international law and recognized even by the Armenian government as part of Azerbaijan, has been occupied by Armenia for over 25 years. The European Court of Human Rights declared that Armenia was an occupying force, and the United Nations Security Council issued four resolutions (UNSCR 822, 853, 874 and 884) rejecting the taking of territories by force and demanding that Armenian forces withdraw from the occupied. zones
What makes the current fight unique is that it is not on the Nagorno Karabakh contact line, but across the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This new conflict zone, Tovuz, is close to the Caspian oil and gas pipelines to western Europe. Fighting in this area could easily escalate into a conflict that would include NATO members who depend on the flow of energy.
Armenia has been able to preserve the territory thanks to the armed support of its ally, Russia. During the 1992-1994 war, Armenia granted Russia the rights to three military bases that house at least 5,000 Russian soldiers. When asked if Russia would respond to an armed attempt by Azerbaijan to regain its own territory, Moscow has always responded ambiguously. Armenian military doctrine maintains that Russia is the guarantor of the country’s military security, and in recent years Russia has equipped its Armenian military bases in Gyumri and Erebuni with MiG-29 fighters, Mi-24 helicopters and more than 70 tanks, armored vehicles . and artillery systems.
In 2015, Nagorno-Karabakh officials told the Daily Beast in interviews that neither Armenia nor Nagorno-Karabakh could survive without Russia’s support in the conflict with Azerbaijan. (At the same time, Moscow is Azerbaijan’s main arms supplier.)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly called the leaders of both countries, and his foreign affairs ministry issued a press release requesting moderation from both sides. However, apart from the words, Moscow has not taken steps to stop the fight. The Kremlin-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Armenia is a member, was supposed to debate the violence, but the meeting was canceled for unknown reasons.
Most Americans have probably never heard of the areas under discussion, but there are important American interests at stake. Azerbaijan is an alternative source of energy for American allies in Europe and Israel, and the fighting in the Tovuz area threatens that. Azerbaijan is also becoming an international hub for transportation and telecommunications. Armenia is the homeland of a large diaspora community in the United States. Both countries have contributed troops to US efforts in Afghanistan. The ongoing fight mocks the role of the United States as co-chair of the Minsk Peace Process, which is supposed to negotiate an end to the conflict.
There are dead soldiers and a display of international law, the European Court of Human Rights and the United Nations, but Russia continues to consolidate its military position abroad. The United States should use its diplomatic and economic strength to bring the parties back to the negotiating table before things spiral out of control or Russia further strengthens its position.
James J. Coyle, Ph.D., is CEO of Coyle International Consulting Inc., specializing in international security issues, and an adjunct professor at the School of Public Policy at Pepperdine University. He served in various positions in the US government, including as director of Middle East Studies, US Army War College. He is the author of “Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts”.
.
