I tend to think that the only type of exchange you will see in baseball for a long time is an exchange that is almost completely money neutral, and would also be roughly worth it, even if there is a full 2020 season or not. Once we hit the Trade Deadline, then sure, you might see some short-term relief deals, things like that, but before that, the Padres and Royals just showed what the trades will be like.
Pre-arbitration players for pre-arbitration players, where there is not a HUGE amount of future value at risk:
We have acquired RHP Ronald Bolaños and OF Franchy Cordero from the San Diego Padres for LHP Tim Hill. #Royals pic.twitter.com/ggkZPCU2KV
– Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 17, 2020
You may not be very familiar with all the names, but these are definitely interesting players in this trade. Hill was a very effective reliever for the Royals last year, and is not eligible for refereeing until at least 2022. Cordero was a much-appreciated field prospect with tremendous power, who has been held back by injury problems in recent years and it doesn’t. Don’t hit arbitration until next year at the earliest. Bolaños is a legitimate pitching prospect who received a cup of coffee last year but has otherwise not pitched above AA.
You can see why this trade is one of the rare that makes sense right now. Neither team is taking money. Neither team is putting their future at risk for the value of 2020. The Padres, yes, are getting the most likely rate to help them this year, but Hill has value to them long after 2020 because of their level of service. The Royals have a powerful post-hype outfielder (hey, he worked with Jorge Soler …) and a young pitching prospect, each of whom they are happy to have after 2020, regardless of what happens this year. And if any of the parties is “wrong” about this trade, they are not going to hit each other very much, because this is not an agreement that alters the franchise.
It’s nice to see an exchange happening, and with useful and interesting players. But don’t miss the point here: This kind of very tight situation will be needed to trade in today’s environment, financially burdened and hugely uncertain. Due to the risk of a pandemic, the “value 2020” in transactions will be HEAVYLY DISCOUNTED. And due to long-term financial risk, anyone whose contract or length of service means decent money after this year will also have an UNKNOWN business value.
