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Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco Director of Health, made a presentation on the COVID-19 data from the Department of Public Health on Monday, July 13, 2020.
Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco Director of Health, made a presentation on the COVID-19 data from the Department of Public Health on Monday, July 13, 2020.
Photo: Department of Public Health
Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco Director of Health, made a presentation on the COVID-19 data from the Department of Public Health on Monday, July 13, 2020.
Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco Director of Health, made a presentation on the COVID-19 data from the Department of Public Health on Monday, July 13, 2020.
Photo: Department of Public Health
The “reproductive rate,” or Rt, is a key measure of how fast a virus is growing, and San Francisco Director of Health Dr. Grant Colfax said it is the indicator he is watching closely in this moment.
The Rt is the average number of people infected by a sick person. When it is above 1.0, a virus spreads quickly. A virus can die when the Rt is below 1.0.
Colfax shared at a press conference Monday that San Francisco’s reproduction rate was below 1.0 through April and May and began to rise in June. The Rt is currently at around 1.25 (based on data as of July 4), and could be a little lower or even higher.
“We were doing so well that our reproductive rate fell below 1.0 and hit as low as .85 and, if that had remained, the virus would basically be consumed in the city,” Colfax said.
Photo: Department of Public Health
Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco Director of Health, made a presentation on the COVID-19 data from the Department of Public Health on Monday, July 13, 2020.
While San Francisco is experiencing a less severe pandemic compared to other parts of the state and country, such as Los Angeles and Florida, the increasing rate of reproduction reveals the potential for more severe conditions.
If it stays at 1.25 or rises further, Colfax shared a projection showing the increase in hospitalizations that could deploy and overwhelm the city’s healthcare system (see chart above and more slides from the presentation).
“This is the slide that keeps me awake at night,” said Colfax. “This is what happens if the rate of reproduction remains at that number of 1.25. If everything remains the same, we would reach a maximum of 830 hospitalizations in our city. In April, we reached a maximum of 94 and thanks to all the work that the people made in San Francisco and taking refuge in the place, we reduced that number “.
The projections for hospitalizations reach more than 6,000. Colfax calls it “a situation that reflects the challenges New York had.”
“We certainly hope this does not happen,” he added. “It is so important here. We have a window here for improvement.”
If the Rt persists at 1.25, SF projects that there could be around 890 deaths by the end of 2020, and up to almost 3,000. The death toll in the city is currently 50.
Colfax, along with Mayor London Breed, provided a deep dive into SF Department of Public Health COVID-19 data that guides the city’s decisions about reopening the economy and society.
The city withdrew some planned changes to its shelter-in-place order last week. The opening of nail and beauty salons, tattoo parlors and massage services was delayed.
“We know we will live with COVID for some time and the goal is to adapt using this data …” said Breed. “We know that there are many numbers, like our key health indicators available online, and it can be difficult to trace what it all means. I know that at the end of the day everyone wants to understand exactly what this means and when we are going to open.”
Since the start of the pandemic, the city has registered 4,950 coronavirus cases. About 1,000 of those total cases were detected in the past two weeks alone, particularly in the southeastern part of the city that has experienced the highest transmission.
Both Colfax and Breed emphasized the need for people to wear masks and distance socially.
“These times are tough, but having a massive pandemic in our city is even worse,” said Colfax.
MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:
Sign up for the ‘The Daily’ newsletter to get the latest on coronavirus here.
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Amy Graff is the SFGATE News Editor. Email him: [email protected].
