Tesla’s second-quarter COVID impacted sales will be a catalyst for stocks next week

Tesla Inc. is expected to report its April-June sales next week, and Wall Street hopes to gauge how much the shutdown of the Silicon Valley automaker’s only U.S. automaker has affected the 2020 sales targets. .

Tesla TSLA,
reports quarterly deliveries, which are your sales representative, and production numbers within days of the end of a quarter, meaning it is likely to be released on Thursday. Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, closed about half the quarter on regional shutdown orders designed to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Analysts polled by the FactSet consensus expect deliveries of 67,000 vehicles, of which 59,600 would be Model 3 mass-market sedans and the rest were roughly split between sales of the Model S luxury sedan and the Model X SUV.

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Investors hope that the Tesla factory in Shanghai, which went online earlier this year, picked up some of the slack. Tesla’s first-quarter inventory could also help with sales in the April-June period.

Wall Street would also appreciate the sales numbers for the Model Y, the compact SUV that is Tesla’s newest vehicle on the line.

Tesla hasn’t exactly backed down its goal to sell more than 500,000 vehicles this year, but it has changed its tune a bit, telling investors in late April that it had the “installed capacity” to deliver more than half a million vehicles in 2020 “despite interruptions in production announced.”

The electric car maker said in early April that it delivered 88,400 vehicles in the first quarter, a performance the company called the “best quarter” in the first quarter and far less than Wall Street expectations.

Evercore ISI analysts set their second-quarter sales expectations at 80,000 to 84,000 units, with sales in China offsetting an expected decline in sales in North America and a “sharp drop” in sales in Europe.

Tesla had between 14,000 and 20,000 vehicles in inventory as of the first quarter, Evercore ISI analysts said.

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Deutsche Bank analysts expect deliveries of 76,000 units, of which 60,000 would be model 3 sedans.

“We estimate that Tesla was able to produce 34,000 Model 3 units from the Shanghai (factory) and around 21,000 in Fremont,” they said. “But we don’t believe Tesla was able to achieve full Model Y production levels.”

They estimated Model Y output at between 10,000 and 13,000 units in the second quarter, or approximately 300 per day.

Tesla reopened the Fremont factory amid a clash with local health authorities that included Chief Executive Elon Musk, calling the closure “fascist” and suing the county where the factory is located. The lawsuit was finally withdrawn.

Tesla shares have gained 131% this year, and recently raised $ 1,000. The gains contrast with the losses of 6% and 12% for the S&P 500 SPX index,
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
, respectively.