Cars
Published in July 2, 2020 |
by Frugal Moogal
July 2, 2020 by Frugal moogal
Well, I created my best and worst case scenarios for production and deliveries, I used what I could find and a series of estimates to pin down the numbers that I felt were accurate, and this morning Tesla published the actual numbers. In that last article (mainly the Tesla press release), Zach noted that the numbers would likely be a reason for some of our authors to produce long pieces in them, and …
I honestly don’t have much more to say about the numbers themselves. I assumed the production of 84,053 with a range of 80,000-92,000. Actual production was 82,272, so I was high at about 2% of my exact number, and the number fell comfortably at the low end of my range. I guessed deliveries of 93,568 with a range of 89,000–101,000, with actual deliveries of 90,650, over 3% on the high side. Not bad, if I say so myself.
There is also an interactive version of this box at the bottom of the article, but sometimes it doesn’t work well on mobile devices.
What I think, I think …
Instead of digging deeper into why I expected the issue (go visit those other articles if you want to see that reasoning in depth), I’m going to give you some quick ideas on the things I’m thinking about right now. If you think any of this is worth a broader exploration, please leave a comment on what interests you and I will seek to delve into the future.
In lease numbers – Tesla only leased 5% of its vehicles sold in the second quarter of 2020. This appears to be a seriously ignored part of the Tesla package, in an industry where the average automaker leases around 30% of its vehicle sales. This significantly changes the way Tesla represents money.
Profits should look good – Tesla delivered more cars in Q2 2020 than Q1 2020, and its lease accounting number dropped to 5% from 7% in Q1 2020. All things considered, I think it would be surprising if do not do it it would see a profit for the second quarter, which would allow Tesla to be included in the S&P 500.
Regulatory credits – Quick note on regulatory credits, as Tesla claimed $ 354 million in credits last quarter, and Bear’s argument always seems to be that without regulatory credits, Tesla would make no money. My first problem with this is that anyone can claim regulatory credits. It’s just that Tesla has chosen to pursue them, or, perhaps more correctly, Tesla’s business plan allows them to grant them. Still, I think Tesla could still make money without recognizing a dollar of regulatory credits this quarter.
Roller coasters are fun – I thought it was fun to think of the ability using the roller coasters as an example, so this is another fun photo of a roller coaster, why not?
Photo Credit: Frugal Moogal
Tesla’s short interest has dried up – This was something I hadn’t noticed until after writing my last TSLA FUD article. Part of the reason that the pace of Tesla’s terrible news has probably slowed down is that Tesla’s short interest has gone crazy lately. As I write this, the short-term interest is now estimated to be 15,140,000 shares, or 10.27%. If we compare this to historical data, according to Nasdaq, short interest is about half what it was when Cybertruck was introduced just over 8 months ago.
But wait, there’s more (errr … Less) With shorts – To get a complete picture of the decline in short-term interest, it’s worth remembering that Tesla has issued more shares over time. Here is a chart of the outstanding shares shown twice per quarter. I can’t find a daily chart, but Tesla has increased the number of shares outstanding (AKA in the market) by about 5 million since Cybertruck was introduced. 15,140,000 short shares would have been 11.90% percent of the float on October 21. Depending on whether you use the October 15 or October 31 short data to align with the October 21 outstanding stock data, the short position was 20.6% or 17.63%, respectively, meaning we have seen a reduction of the short position by about half in that time. It was over 23% a year ago.
Which means short-term reduced interest – It is impossible to guarantee something, as things can and do change rapidly, but reduced short activity should lead to less volatility in stock movement. It also means that short sellers lost billions on their bets. On the day of Cybertruck’s announcement, Tesla shares closed at $ 354.83. If only the short sellers that came out lost just $ 100 each on their bets, their loss would be more than $ 1.5 billion. Based on super fast math, if you want to use the linked articles above to try to estimate this better, be my guest, I think short sellers lost around $ 6 billion on their Tesla bets in the last year, or almost enough. to cover all the debt Tesla has (when it includes its available cash) at the end of the last quarter. It sucks for them.
What the hell another roller coaster – This time, I’ll use the excuse of saying that this roller coaster mimics a graph of how I feel Tesla short sellers felt over the past year …
Image Credit: Frugal Moogal
The ride is not over yet
With the rapid construction of factories and additional capacity, the preparation of new products for production and the day of the investor in batteries, we have plenty of room for Tesla as a company to continue and expand its leadership.
… And to finish on an important final note: I’m excited for when the pandemic ends and I can get back on some roller coasters.
Disclaimer
I am a tesla [NASDAQ:TSLA] shareholder who has purchased shares within the previous 12 months. The research I do for items, including this item, may force me to increase or decrease stock positions. However, I will not do so within 48 hours of the publication of any article discussing issues that I believe may materially affect the share price. I don’t think my voice can or should influence stock price alone, and I caution anyone not to use my work as their sole data point to choose to invest or divest in any company. My articles are my opinion, which was formulated using research based on publicly available data. However, my research or conclusions may be incorrect.
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About the Author
Frugal Moogal A businessman first, the Frugal Moogal looks at electric vehicles from a business perspective. Having worked across multiple industries and in roles that managed significant money, he believes the way to convince people that the EV revolution is here is by looking at vehicles the way a company would.
