Tesla deliveries could exceed 500,000 in 2020


Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) It impressed investors on Thursday, reporting second-quarter vehicle deliveries that were well ahead of analyst estimates. The feat was particularly notable as the company’s main factory in Fremont, California closed during the first half of the quarter.

While delivery numbers bode well for the company’s second-quarter financial results, which Tesla likely won’t release until later this month, the update also suggests the automaker has a chance to reach its goal. annual of more than 500,000 before the pandemic deliveries in 2020 after all.

Tesla Model S, X, 3 and Y

Tesla vehicles. Image source: Tesla.

Q2 production and deliveries

On Thursday morning, Tesla said it delivered about 90,650 vehicles in the second quarter, crushing analysts’ average estimate for 72,000 deliveries. Impressively, too, that topped the 88,496 units the electric automaker delivered to customers in the first quarter.

Of course, Tesla’s vehicle production was affected when the necessary blockages by coronavirus led the company to close its factory in California during the first half of the quarter. Tesla said it produced 82,272 vehicles during the second quarter, well below 102,672 units in the first quarter. More importantly, the administration noted in its production and delivery update on Thursday that it had successfully increased production to pre-coronavirus levels.

Total Model S and X deliveries during the second quarter were approximately 10,600, Tesla said. Deliveries of its lower-cost Model 3 and Model Y vehicles totaled around 80,050.

The road to 500,000 deliveries

With just 193,322 vehicles delivered during the first half of 2020, a goal of 500,000 total deliveries during the year may seem out of reach at first glance. But investors need to consider two important catalysts for Tesla during the year.

First, Tesla started production at a new factory in China to build Model 3 vehicles for that important market late last year. In Tesla’s first-quarter update, the company said it believed the factory would reach an annualized factory production rate of 200,000 vehicles in mid-2020, an achievement that would provide a substantial increase in deliveries in the second half of the year. . .

Second, the automaker released its Model Y crossover ahead of schedule earlier this year, and production is doing very well, management explained in its first-quarter shareholder letter.

We were able to build more Model Y vehicles in the first quarter of production than in the first two quarters of Model 3 in 2017. Model Y production also exceeded the first quarter of Model 3 production in Shanghai, demonstrating continuous improvements in program execution. .

With the additional tailwinds from high-volume Model 3 production in China and the launch of Model Y, the goal of more than 500,000 deliveries in 2020 appears to be within Tesla’s reach. Highlighting the significant growth that this implies, this would be higher than the 388,000 deliveries in 2019.