2020 win-share projection: 4.82 (QB 4). Agreement priority ranking: 10)
Remember, my models rate mutual benefit situations higher than distributive ones. That is, he would be pushing for an agreement to be signed now if he were working for Watson, who can be held for two more years on his rookie contract, OR the Texans. Houston made some major moves this offseason, swapping catcher DeAndre Hopkins and signing left tackle Laremy Tunsil to an extension, and the best historical references show that securing Watson now correlates to more long-term wins. My models rate Watson’s deal this season as almost exactly the same value as the Chiefs who extend Patrick Mahomes. When I rank the offensive cast of the top seven QBs in terms of share of wins on my model (including Watson, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Tom Brady), Watson’s current cast in the ranks offensive the lowest … by far.
My computer vision shows that in the past two seasons, Watson has had the most kills (runs and passes) when defenders have entered a 5-foot halo in his field of vision (which is my proxy for measuring pressure ). Without Hopkins, succeeding at that rate will be much more difficult, but if Texans invest what seems like a lot now and then build around Watson, they predict better results in the next three seasons than they would if they waited to sign Watson. presumably it would be a higher salary in a year or two. That is, they should be better positioned to acquire higher value surrounding cast members if they extend Watson now.
