In other words, he knows the numbers.
1) “Let’s talk about herd immunity. I’ve heard some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to achieve herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I’m not a health care expert for any means, but I’m a math kid. And I have thoughts: “
2) “Experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let’s assume they are wrong (certainly possible, they have been before). Suppose you are being too” cautious and we really only need 40% infection for collective immunity. “
3) “In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We have had 36,680 cases so far. We would need 1.2 MILLION infections to reach that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it is double).”
4) “Over the past two weeks, our hospital system has begun to stress to the point of pain. We are seeing the first signs and effects that they are overwhelming. We had to suspend elective surgeries again.”
5) “On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. Usually it has been between 700-900 during this aggressive time. To get to 40% of infections, we would need 3,187 new cases each day for a total year from today. We would need to triple our worst day, every day, for a year. “
6) “I am not one of these guys who immediately dismisses any ideas that challenge expert status quo discussion points. I am quite skeptical by nature. That is healthy. But collective immunity is nothing like a realistic short-term solution. or in the medium term. I wish it were. “
7) “Unless you’re willing to go hospital-free after a car accident or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite the confusing messages at first, it seems that masks are the best option. They are a hell of a lot better than general closings. Please use one! “
Yes, all of that.
What Reeves is doing is what we all should be doing: rejecting wild theories of how the coronavirus is overblown or not so bad with cold hard facts.
The idea that we can all somehow develop herd immunity without dramatically overloading the hospital system is a fantasy. Even if you assume, as advocates of the idea of collective immunity do, that many more of us have had coronaviruses (and don’t even know it) than the evidence shows, you’re still talking about a number of cases requiring hospitalizations. that would overwhelm the system in virtually every state.
Instead of looking for a magic bullet to overcome this pandemic, or, as President Donald Trump has done, declaring that the fight won when it obviously isn’t, what we should do is exactly what Reeves recommends: wear a mask when you’re in public! Because, unlike insane theories about herd immunity, the scientific community has concluded that masks help mitigate the spread of the virus.
It shouldn’t be.
.
