[ad_1]
After the removal proposal of Taoyuan City Councilor Wang Haoyu was approved, the third phase of the removal of Kaohsiung City Councilor Huang Jie followed, and the vote will take place on February 6. However, whether the withdrawal case will pass as well as Wang Haoyu’s case is worried about the outside world. According to an internal benchmark poll conducted by a US think tank, which “may” be, the difference between the number of votes for approval and the number of votes for disagreement is likely to be within 3,000 votes .
An American, Machine, who claims to be a graduate of the University of Chicago and loves Taiwan, announced today (17) that he obtained an internal benchmark survey from an American think tank on the January 2021 survey on removal of Huang Jie. Announced on Huang Jie’s official non-public Facebook community. It is worth noting that in June last year, the impeachment case of Kaohsiung Mayor Hanguo Yu was approved, and the analyst had published a survey on the impeachment of Huang Jie.
The survey mentioned for the first time that in this impeachment case, the number of eligible voters in the Fengshan district to which Mr. Huang Jie belongs is 287,829, and the threshold for impeachment is 71,958.
According to the survey data, if all the people in Huangjie constituency are supposed to vote for this withdrawal, the number of “definitely vote” is estimated to be 52%, which is estimated at 149,671 votes. The number of “can vote” is estimated at 18%, with 51,809 votes estimated. The number of “will not vote” is estimated at 30% and 86,349 votes are estimated.
Among the proportion of “will vote”, it was agreed to eliminate 49% of the votes and 73,339 votes were estimated. Disagreement is estimated to be 51%, with 76,332 votes estimated. Among the proportions of “likely voters”, an estimated 47% agree with the revocation and an estimated 24,350 votes. Approval of the withdrawal is estimated at 53%, with an estimated 27,459 votes. The proportion of “will not vote” is 30%, which is estimated at 86,349 votes.
Judging from the 71,958 votes for the removal threshold, the estimated maximum number of votes for “Accept to remove Huang Jie” is 97,689 votes, and the minimum estimated number of votes is 73,339 votes. “I do not agree to eliminate Huang Jie” maximum estimated number of votes: 103,791 votes, minimum estimated number of votes: 76,332 votes.
In the end, the noteworthy conclusion is that the survey estimated that in the event of withdrawal, whether to agree to the withdrawal or not, both votes are likely to exceed the withdrawal threshold. And if among the 51,809 votes that “can vote”, if “Baijie” has 2,994 votes more than “Tingjie”, the revocation can be approved.
The total number of valid samples in the survey is 3,000 and the survey date is January 11, 2021.
(Zhongshi News Network)
[ad_2]
