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The subject of today’s report is “Double D quotes bullish for module factories, components outperform manufacturers.”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang stressed that the US Congress approved a new round of the $ 900 billion rescue package, but the Dow Jones index closed down 200 points on Tuesday, which is quite beneficial. President Trump may not sign the plan, which throws in variables for the US stock market before Christmas. It will take several months for the vaccine to be vaccinated among a wide range of people to achieve herd immunity.
From now until the first quarter of next year, the United States economy continues to face strong downward pressure. Although there is a new round of rescue plans, the stimulus scale of less than $ 1 trillion is not enough to reverse the current slowdown in consumption growth and the deterioration of the labor market. Biden understands. In this situation, it is promised that after taking office on January 20 next year, another relief plan will be approved, but can it be done?
The key is the election of senator for the second seat in Georgia on January 5 of next year. If the Democrats don’t take everything, they won’t be able to control the Senate. Under Trump’s support, the Republican Party can adopt a boycott. Biden will not be able to push the rescue case after he takes office. At that point, US stocks will have the first black swan in 2021.
Taiwanese stocks have always followed the rise and fall of US stocks, Taiwan stocks have soared 20% this year, hitting a high base period. The first quarter of next year is a difficult trading record. In January, there are variables in the Georgia Senate elections on January 5. With the effect of the long holidays at the close of the Lunar New Year in February, the high-end stock market is prone to selling pressure ahead of the long holidays.
The second black swan is a hefty US dollar bomb. If Congress splits up next year, this time $ 900 billion will be the last large-scale stimulus plan that Congress can pass, because after the vaccine is widely vaccinated in the second half of next year, stimulus plans similar on a large scale will be almost impossible. It can be there again.
The United States is no longer pushing for a large-scale stimulus plan. If fiscal policy tools are not increased, only the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will relax. The US dollar can become a strong bomb. The market will look down the trend of the US dollar next year. risk.
Assuming a sudden change in trend, global investors will be crazy to sell risky assets. Recently, the US dollar index has fallen below the 90 point barrier, but the virus of the new variant of the European krone and the rescue case of 900 billion US dollars passed, and currently stands at 90 points. All are priced in US dollars. Previously, the US dollar was down and commodities soared. It makes sense to make more products related to steel, plastics, and shipping. Now the US dollar has recovered slightly. If raw materials go too high, you should stop looking. The results of the Georgia Senate election on January 5.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that on Wednesday, the Biden Concept Stock Solar Group, Motech (6244-TW), Danone (3686-TW), Guoshuo (2406-TW), Yuanjing (6443-TW), Anji ( 6477-TW) multi-stage lights up the daily cap, highlighting the psychology of the market, rushing to make another wave ahead of Georgia’s Jan.5 Senate election. If the Democratic Party does not win dominance of the Senate, Biden 2 Trillion Dollar Green Energy Project will be scaled back and the solar community can rest.
Stocks going in and out only until January 5 is too short. The electronics industry is traditionally out of season in the first quarter of next year, but prices for memories and panels are ushering in a wave of price increases for products. The offseason is not weak, and the double-D operation is relatively safe.
DRAM stocks have skyrocketed since December, with some products increasing by more than 20% in a single month. The main driving force comes from the demand for laptops and desktops. Supply will not catch up with demand in the first half of next year. Korean factories will shift part of their DRAM production capacity to CMOS image sensors. , Korean factories have been shipped ahead of schedule, prompting intermediate and secondary manufacturers to replenish inventory. Prices for DRAM contracts in the first quarter of next year are estimated to increase between 3% and 5%, reversing the downward trend since the second half of this year.
The price increase of intuitive memory is profitable for manufacturers Nanya Ke (2408-TW), Winbond (2344-TW), Macronix (2337-TW), but in fact, module factories with high inventories suffer The benefits are Even higher. On Wednesday, ADATA (3260-TW) and Team Group (4967-TW) led the way, but share prices were only up 6% and 30% respectively this year, with a low base period.
Affected by the suspension of the Japanese manufacturer of glass substrates NEG Glass NEG, the price of the panels in December increased between 3% and 5%. The manufacturer’s restocking of TV brands is expected to increase from US $ 2 to US $ 6 in January next year. This year, the price of 32-inch panels doubled, 55-inch panels increased 70%. The Shuanghu AUO (2409-TW) and Innolux (3481-TW) panels lost too much in the first half of the year, so the annual EPS only went from a loss to a profit and made a small profit, but next year the EPS will explode. , Respectively estimated at 1.5 yuan and 1.4 yuan Based on the current price, the proportion of PE next year will be about 10 times.
Furthermore, TCL is reported to have been investigated by the United States and is now under attack. If it is included in the US trade blacklist In the future, because China Star Optoelectronics, a subsidiary of TCL, is the second largest panel manufacturer in mainland China, it will be possible to switch to a single dual-tiger panel then. Panel Shuanghu’s growth rate is higher than that of panel components, so the share price of panel components has a low base period, but the main force can see that the first quarter of next year will not it will be weak in the off season. The panel components will be locked. On Wednesday, the base material (8215-TW) and Youhui (4933-TW), Guangyao (3666-TW) and Tianyu (4961-TW) rose more prominently than the Shuanghu panel.
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