[ad_1]
The theme of today’s report is “Double Ds will be stronger before customs closes, and the mainstream will be forecast after the Spring Festival.”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan stocks have historically experienced major corrections, 80% of which are affected by international factors. Taiwanese stocks are shaded above 1,100 in January, and KD’s monthly value has gone from 90% to high. and foreign sales have exceeded 110,000 million yuan, but financing increased by 10,800 million yuan, which shows that the technical aspect is overheated and the currency side is complicated, which yields variables for the market February.
Looking at the line pattern of the Taiwan stock market, which is the same as the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, means that if there is a turn in the February market, it should be from the epicenter of stocks and semiconductors from US technology
Today, the biggest risk for US stocks is the fanaticism of retail investors. In the past, retail investors accounted for only 10% of US stock transactions. Since last year’s epidemic, it has risen to 30%. The ants move like an enormous force.
Recently, retail investors shorting GameStop hedge funds and AMC demon stocks have soared at a 10-fold rate, forming a domino effect. Hedge funds lost $ 20 billion a month to make up for the liquidation loss and withdrew funds from Taiwan. and South Korea in US and Asian stocks, resulting in GameStop. The trend is inversely related to US stocks and Taiwanese stocks.
As GameStop’s short rate is still as high as 120%, the 140% of the highest peak has not dropped much and the short-circuit interest rate has risen, indicating that the long-short battle is not over. The third week of Friday is the settlement of the option, and the long-short winner will be determined on February 19. However, the stock market may reflect upfront, but Taiwan stocks only opened the red market on the lunar calendar on February 17. Stocks may have a further downtrend.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that, to be fair, some demon stocks like GameStop will not pose a systemic risk to US stocks, but the retail investor craze will make US stocks bubble. Much like the eve of dot-com in 2000, when retail investors aggressively expanded their credit and had a high turnover rate, they holistically chased internet stocks and eventually crashed and lost their money.
If US stocks bubble in the future, the first domino to fall must be demonic GameStop stocks, and the second busiest trading stock on the market will be the second domino. This time it should be electric cars, like the Facebook of FAANG, Apple and Google. The profit ratio is 30 times, Netflix, Amazon 80 to 90 times, but the Tesla electric car 1,500 times.
A careful analysis of Tesla’s financial reports for the past four seasons shows that EV revenue in the latest quarter was $ 9.3 billion, an annual increase of 46%, but the most important gross profit margin of the last quarter was 24.1%. , which was the lowest in the last four seasons., so the revenue growth, but the gross profit margin decreased.
There is nothing wrong with gaining market share, but Tesla’s profit comes not from selling cars, but from the non-industrial benefits of carbon rights, which shows that EVs are not profitable in the industry. If the Tesla share price bubble, Taiwan shares will have a lot of electric vehicle concept stocks. More dangerous.
Tesla’s revenue in the latest quarter came from 86% of EVs, but the electric vehicle supply chain of Taiwanese manufacturers came from the union with the largest share of EVs: KY (3665-TW) was only 25 %, but this wave China’s EV concept stocks have more than doubled, but EV revenue accounted for just single digits, or even just under planning.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized, “Houses built on the beach cannot withstand the test of waves.”
Why did Germany, Japan and the United States apply to Taiwan for the supply of automotive chips, but the share price of TSMC (2330-TW) has completely fallen? Based on the revenue index for TSMC’s top five product lines in Q3 2020, Smartphones 46% and High Performance Computing 37%, Internet of Things 9%, Consumer Electronics 3%, Automotive Electronics 2% .
Auto chips represented the lowest revenue index, with small volume and low gross profit. They would have been last on the production line. But now the shortage of auto chips has affected the auto industry of the major countries mentioned above, so putting pressure on the Taiwan foundry and TSMC dispatch production capacity, giving priority to the production of auto chips, is negative for TSMC’s revenue and gross profit margin, not positive.
According to an estimate of TSMC’s revenue of 1.3 trillion yuan last year, automotive chip revenue is also 26 billion yuan. Once TSMC mobilizes 5-10% of its production capacity to support automotive chips, it will displace smart phones with better income and High efficiency It is capable of computing, and it has been reported that AMD is considering giving the GPU to Samsung to foundry production.
To what extent does TSMC sacrifice business interests? On February 5, US officials met with Taiwanese officials and TSMC to discuss automotive chips, which may provide answers. If the US requests too much, TSMC’s share price may still be low.
On Monday, TSMC only recovered sharply. Last week, the number of new shareholders increased by 100,000 to a total of 800,000. The number of shareholders surpassed Hon Hai (2317-TW) and became second place in Taiwanese shares. These retail investors think Increasing automotive chip production is bad for TSMC, and there are few cases where retail investors can succeed in bargaining, even the country’s protection mountain is no exception.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that automotive chips displace the design of small and medium integrated circuits. Unlike MediaTek (2454-TW) and Novatek (3034-TW), which have fully obtained the production capacity of cast iron, small and medium size IC design becomes the next victim. First quarter revenue they will be lower than expected, and many are the main targets of this wave of active speculation.
Before closing, the market mindset turned conservative. To seek stability first and then look for something better, stocks with a low P / E ratio and a high rate of return are the focus of New Year stock holding. Panel AUO (2409-TW) issued a legal statement this week. The quarterly profit was 10 billion yuan, and the EPS challenged 1 yuan in a single quarter. Looking at listed companies with such conditions, but the share price is 15 yuan, only AUO.
In addition, BOE, the world’s largest panel factory, was investigated by the US International Trade Commission ITC 337, which may affect BOE’s supply of OLED panels for Apple iPhones and roll-screen phones. LG and BOE of South Korea.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the failure of others is our success. Innolux (3481-TW) and AUO are the third and fourth largest panel suppliers in the world, and will be the biggest beneficiaries with the current increase in panel prices.
In addition, the DRAM group benefited from the increase in product prices and the displacement of the production capacity of automotive chips, which caused the prices of the second quarter to rise again. On Monday, Nanya (2408-TW) was up more than AUO. The highest price Increased DRAM is a niche memory. It has skyrocketed by more than 30% in January. Winbond (2344-TW) and Jinghao Branch (3006-TW) have benefited the most from their operations and continue to track trends before customs closes.
Join Tsai Mingzhang’s Fan Group for Free Now to Share More Information
Mr. Cai chooses LINE’s fan group of dark horse Cai Mingzhang
https://line.me/ti/p/@marbo666
Cai chooses free YOUTUBE audio and video channel, Cai Mingzhang, the dark horse
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHjkjx50-BTduhjwiwFA3nw
Mr. Cai chooses the Dark Horse Cai Mingzhang FB community
https://www.facebook.com/groups/marbo666/
Mr. Cai Chooses Dark Horse Cai Mingzhang Telegram Fan Group
https://t.me/marbo666
Individual values recommended by the company for analysis
No inappropriate financial interest ratio Past performance does not guarantee future benefits
Investors should make independent judgments and prudential assessments and bear their own investment risks.
[ad_2]
