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Container shipping rates have skyrocketed, but bulk carriers have recently included Huiyang-KY (2637-TW), AVIC (2612-TW), Four-Dimensional Airlines (5608-TW), etc. The prospects for the future launch are not bad, but it is not entirely optimistic. The two main markets for shipping are clearly dissociated. The observation is that, although the supply and demand structure of bulk vessels has also improved, the demand is mainly for raw materials, which is more susceptible to the influence of the Chinese policy of the bulk material importer, and each type of vessel is different It will also reflect a different profit performance.
According to Clarkson, a maritime consulting agency, the market supply and demand growth rate this year will be 3% and -4.1%, but the oversupply situation will be reversed next year and growth of supply and demand will reach 1% and 5.1% respectively. In particular, new shipbuilding orders will remain low in the future. The newly added supply is expected to continue to decline in a few years.
Huiyang noted that the epidemic has reduced orders for new construction this year by about 50% compared to previous years. On the contrary, the amount of ship scrapping has increased significantly and it is estimated that the freight rate will constantly increase.
Siwei Airlines also stated that starting next year, supply growth is expected to fall to a five-year low, which will cause demand to exceed supply. This will continue until 2024, and the supply and demand structure will become healthy.
However, AVIC believes that despite strong demand for iron ore from China, the new wave of short-term epidemics still creates uncertainty and the pressure on the tonnage of new ships will continue to have a significant impact.
The difference between observation and perspective is that the main types of boats are different.
AVIC’s shipping business primarily manages 10 Capesize bulk carriers; Among the 136 vessels in Huiyang’s total fleet, Handy has the largest number of 41 vessels, which represents 30% of the fleet, and Small Handy, Panamax and supramax are all around 30; There are 39 ships on the 4D route and Handy has 21 ships, which represents 54% of the total.
Among them, Capesize’s freight rate is closely related to iron ore. Due to the recent rise in iron ore, the Baltic Strait Index (BCI) has soared almost 40% in the last month. At the same time, the Baltic Super Handy Index (BSI) only increased. Almost 7%, the Panama Baltic Index (BIS) fell more than 5%.
On the other hand, the political struggle between China and other commodity exporting countries has also partially affected the kinetic energy of commodity demand. Recently, factors such as the continuing tension between China and Australia have caught the attention of airlines.
Some airlines have not been shy about saying that China’s attitude has a great influence on the price fluctuations of bulk materials, and that the bulk market can only be seen quarter by quarter.
In general, although commodities transported by bulk carriers are simpler than container ships, the types of ships operated by various carriers are very different and are also affected by changes in cooperative relationships of major import and export raw materials. . Can they obviously follow container shipping in the future? The strong wind remains to be seen.
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