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Although the current US elections are not over yet, Democratic presidential candidate Biden is expected to enter the White House. The subsequent development of the science and technology war between the United States and China has attracted the attention of the market.
Chen Tianzhi, former chairman of the National Development Council, said in an interview recently that with the impact of the epidemic on the economic depression and the contradiction of values of digital economic governance, the technological war between the United States and China will continue. Biden is elected president of the United States, the situation will not change. And if the supply chain of the United States and China is decoupled (decoupled), Taiwanese entrepreneurs will play an important role.
In terms of semiconductors, the decoupling of the United States and China is actually to decouple Taiwanese entrepreneurs from China, not the United States and China. About 34% of China’s semiconductor imports come from Taiwan. In the fields of information communication and optical products, Taiwanese entrepreneurs will also be an important key to implement decoupling. On the contrary, American companies will basically not really pull out of China. Their interests are too great and they can only restrict the export of specific products and sensitive technologies.
Chen Tianzhi stressed that protectionism will not disappear due to the economic depression, the recovery of international merchandise trade is weak, and tariffs between the United States and China will continue to exist. In fact, the preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China is originally dark, cliché, and difficult to implement. But from another perspective, the United States still has room to reap benefits, so the possibility of Biden continuing the tariff war remains very high, allowing China to make more substantial concessions.
Biden’s political views tend to be multilateralism and he does not approve of withdrawing from international organizations, but he still supports reform. And it is likely to contain China going back to the TPP. This was originally the strategy established in the Obama era. The TPP tariff deals do not favor Chinese suppliers and will further decouple the United States and China, and the Asia-Pacific rebalancing will continue. Therefore, Chen Tianzhi said that Taiwan’s business strategy should rethink regional cooperation.
And the tech war will definitely continue. Unlike Taiwan, China is only investing in technology to make money. China’s technological development, be it artificial intelligence or new energy and other emerging technologies, has very strong military implications. When there was no money in the past, the CCP still spent a lot of money on nuclear weapons and moon landings, but now it will only get worse. As long as the CCP system remains unchanged, the United States cannot rest easy. It will be the same for whoever is chosen.
(First source of the image: Flickr / Matt Johnson CC BY 2.0)
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