[ad_1]
Crude oil futures have risen in recent months as demand for crude oil has slowly recovered and the band has increased by more than 90%. Some investors are puzzled by this estimate, why the net value of the Yuanta S&P 2 crude oil positive ETF has not returned to more than 2 yuan. Yuanta Investment Credit explained that it was mainly the underlying index followed by Yuanta Crude Oil 2 that did not rise during this period, but fell sharply by 48.79%. Therefore, it is not because crude futures prices rise that the index will rise accordingly.
Yuanta Investment Letter stated that an unprecedented negative event in the price of oil occurred in the crude oil market on April 20, causing a sharp reversal in international crude futures. However, due to the sharp reduction in the OPEC + production, coupled with the global epidemic of the new krone, the demand for crude oil is slowly returning. Wen, in terms of swing earnings, the West Texas crude oil June contract futures price was just $ 20.43 per barrel on April 20, and by September 4, the October contract had risen to $ 39.77 per barrel. The price of the futures contract has changed. The rate reaches 94.66%.
In theory, the net worth of the Yuanta S&P Crude Oil Positive 2 ETF on April 20 was NT $ 0.86. Based on this exchange rate, it is reasonable that the net value of Yuanta Crude Oil Positive 2 reaches 2.49 yuan, but as of September 4, the net value of Yuanta Crude Oil Zheng 2 is 0.8 yuan , which is still some way from getting back to 2 yuan, causing investors to question.
Yuanta Investment Trust stated that the ETF set a specific tracking target ratio at the time of issuance. The target index followed by Yuanta Crude Oil Positive 2 is the “S&P Goldman Sachs Crude Oil Daily Return Positive Double ER Index”, but from April 20 to September 4, the leverage index Crude oil did not rise, but fell 48.79%. Therefore, even though the price change rate of crude oil futures contracts is as high as 94.7%, Yuanta Crude Oil is still unable to recover. .
Yuanta Investment Letter emphasized that although the tracked crude oil leveraged index band fell sharply by 48.79%, the net worth of Yuanta Crude Oil Plus 2 fell from 0.86 yuan to 0.8 yuan, down from 6, 98% during the same period, and the net worth of Yuanta Crude Oil Plus 2 The rate of return was 41.81% ahead of the return of the index It is obvious that Yuanta Crude Oil was adjusting its investment strategy in a timely manner, effectively protecting the assets of the fund.
Investors are curious why the Leveraged Crude Oil Index will drop 48.79%. Yuanta Investment Trust looked at the main reason for this because West Texas crude oil futures tumbled on April 21, making the index difficult to recover in the short term. As the price of crude oil futures fell 43.37% that day, and the 200% exposure of the index caused the drop to double to 86.7%, the value of the index dropped considerably and it was necessary a larger increase to turn losses into gains.
For example, if a stock falls 50%, it needs to go up 100% ((1-0.5) /0.5) to return to its original point; if it falls 75%, it needs to go up 300% ((1-0.25) / 0.25) to get back to the original point; And if the stock goes down 90%, regardless of other costs, it will have to go up almost 900% ((1-0.1) / 0.1) to balance the profit and loss.
As can be seen from the formula above, the crude oil leverage ratio fell 86.7% on April 21, and the index should rise by at least 652% ((1-13.3%) / 13.3% ) to return to the original point. Even if futures are used to create 200% leverage, crude oil futures have to go up at least 326% (652% / 2) to get back to their original starting point.
If estimated based on the settlement price of June West Texas Crude Oil Futures on April 21 at $ 11.57, the West Texas Crude Oil futures price would have to return to around $ 49.3 before the leveraged crude oil index could return to its original starting point. This also shows that Although crude oil prices have recovered to US $ 39.77 on September 4, the reason the Leveraged Crude Oil Index still shows negative returns is that the ultimate reason is that the previous drop is too large, making the leveraged crude oil index unable to return to the ups and downs even after a big rally. The previous level.
[ad_2]
