Scholars: Who is the president of the United States, the structural conflict between the United States and China remains unchanged | Politics | CNA

(Central News Agency reporters Chen Yunyu and Liu Guanting, Taipei, 7th) The relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan after the US elections has attracted a lot of attention. The Sinica Wu Yushan Academy pointed out today that competition and conflict between the United States and China based on structural factors is inevitable and has nothing to do with the leaders. Direct cause and effect, Taiwan’s biggest challenge is how to adapt to America’s “big brother.”

Zhang Wuyue, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, believes that in the next three years, the two sides of the strait will not be able to establish a new consensus, much less have a “Cai Xihui”; all that both sides of the strait need to do is use new ways of thinking and new actions to avoid errors in judgment and prevention. Accident and crisis management should prevent the spiral of hostility between people on both sides of the straits from deepening and promote the pattern of peaceful development from quantitative to qualitative change.

The Changfeng Foundation and the Taipei Forum Foundation today delivered a speech inviting Wu Yushan and former Secretary of the National Security Council Su Qi to discuss the impact of the results of the US presidential elections on the situation in East Asia and the cross-strait relationships.

As for whether the confrontation between the United States and China can alleviate the role played by Taiwan, Wu Yushan noted that China poses ideological, economic, political and military challenges to the United States more than the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States during the former Cold War.

He noted that under the new Cold War system between the United States and China, competition and conflict between the United States and China based on structural factors are inevitable. There is no direct causal relationship with whether the leaders of the United States and China are Trump or Xi Jinping respectively. The leaders of the two countries can only influence the degree and form of the conflict; And between the two powers of the United States and China, more and more countries will become “small and medium countries”, and can choose to play three roles: partners, centers or risk averse.

Wu Yushan said the DPP has chosen to be America’s “partner” and “little brother”, but although the role of “partner” is the safest, but the “valuation” is the lowest, the relationship can be described as low risk and low benefit; furthermore, there are no partners. Risk aversion is possible. During the term of US President Trump, relations between the United States and China have deteriorated rapidly, and Taiwan has also come under tremendous pressure.

Wu Yushan believes that if Democratic presidential candidate Biden is elected, US policy toward China will inevitably adjust. The coordinates will likely be between the times of Obama and Trump; although the basic pattern of competition or conflict between the two powers the United States and China remains unchanged. Taiwan has yet to adjust to America’s “big brother”, and this is the biggest challenge currently facing the Taiwanese government.

However, he also mentioned that Trump is an “economic hawk” and not a “strategic hawk”, thus paying relatively little attention to relations with traditional strategic allies such as EU countries. If Biden wins the election, it is seen that the United States will pay more attention to strategic security, suppress economic hawks and strengthen traditional multilateral strategic alliances and return to the Comprehensive Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) when cooperation with China is limited in areas such as climate change and fighting the epidemic. ) And other multilateral mechanisms, the Bilateral Taiwan-United States Trade Agreement (BTA) may also have a better chance of being signed under considerations other than commercialism.

Zhang Wuyue, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, also pointed out at the Ma Xihui 5th Anniversary Symposium in the afternoon that mainland China has criticized Taiwan more recently, including “seeking independence by epidemic “,” to seek independence by force “and” to seek independence from the United States “. Etc., if the Democratic candidate Biden is elected, the relationship between the United States and China will not change dramatically. However, mainland China should say much less about “independence by force” and “independence from the United States.”

Regarding cross-strait relations after the American elections, Zhang Wuyue believes that there are four main limitations, including the continued confrontation between the major powers of the United States and China, the continued fermentation of Hong Kong’s problems against Taiwan, the lack of mutual political trust and good channels of communication between officials on both sides of the Strait and the personality of the leaders on both sides of the Strait. Traits and fundamental thinking, etc. (Editor: Lin Kelun) 1091107

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