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With the convocation of the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Biden and Trump officially crowned the 2020 presidential candidates. As a result, the battle between the two opponents has officially entered a fiery stage.
On today’s show, let’s take a look at all kinds of polls in America, who wins and who loses now; and let’s explore and interpret the numbers behind these numbers. Odds of winning are affected by other variables.
Trump polls affected by epidemic and protests are now behind Biden
Given that most current presidents have enormous administrative resources, media attention, and other electoral advantages, at the end of 2019, the general market believed that Trump’s re-election was close. Yale University, Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics and other institutions predict that Trump has a high chance of being re-elected.
But this year, the United States has encountered the “black swan” of the Chinese Communist Party virus epidemic, which has severely damaged the US economy and people’s livelihoods. Business activities in the second fiscal quarter have almost ceased and the unemployment rate has also increased. In addition, in late May, the unrest in the United States caused by the “death of Freud”, President Trump strongly condemned the protesters and strongly criticized “neo-Marxism” and “anarchism”, which caused the discontent of leftists and Liberals and More By encouraging Trump’s polls to drop to the lowest 40%, Biden widened the gap to double digits. It wasn’t until the latest polls in August showed Trump’s support bottomed out and rebounded steadily. The gap between the two parties narrowed.
According to statistics from the popular “FiveThirtyEight” and “538” websites that watch the US elections, as of the afternoon of August 26, Biden had a slight advantage in national polls, reaching 51.4%, while 42.0% of Trump lagged behind. 9 percentage points.
This statistic is a combination of figures from many voting agencies, including Ipsos and Rasmussen, and you get an average figure that, although it fluctuates every day, is realistic and realistic. From a point of view, Biden has still led the polls in recent months.
But at the same time, with the fast recovery of the American economy and the livelihood of the people, Trump’s polls, which were originally at a disadvantage, have also seen a new wave of momentum these days.
Latest poll: Trump’s approval rate rises in six swing states
On August 26, a new poll released by CNBC and polling company Change Research showed that voters in six swing states in the United States have rapidly increased their support for President Trump in the past two weeks.
We know that undecided states, also called “battlefield states,” are states in which both sides are even and neither candidate has an overwhelming advantage. And because of the growing partisanship of the American people, there is little chance that the traditional “red state” or “blue state” will return. Thus, the erratic “rocking state” has become a battlefield that can ultimately influence election results.
This latest poll is aimed at public opinion in six undecided states in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It found that 48% of state citizens expressed support for President Trump’s work, an increase of 2 percentage points from two weeks ago. Especially in the fight against the epidemic, the rate of support for Trump rose to 47%, the highest level since mid-May. Additionally, these voters’ concerns about the severity of the epidemic have also subsided in the past two weeks.
Of course, 47 out of 100 people support it, which also means that there are 53 people against it. However, the gradual increase in support in swing states reflects President Trump’s recent multi-pronged approach to jumpstarting the economy, encouraging resumption of work and school, and developing “swift action” treatments and vaccines. Voters in swing states, who are unsure, have given a boost.
After finishing the math problems, let’s do it and see the reading comprehension: What is the meaning behind these quantized big data, and besides the numbers, are there more mysteries hidden in the choice? Let’s talk about it from several interesting angles.
How much gold does the survey contain? What are the affected factors?
First of all, I think the question everyone is asking is, after the polls come and go, has the true American public opinion been brought to light?
Back then, in 2016, Hillary’s poll was also ahead of Trump, but in the end, it was “Waterloo” on election night. Someone said Clinton only led a little bit, but now Biden leads by an average of 9%, which is much higher than Hillary’s.
Take a look at the history. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis (Michael Dukakis), after winning the party’s Congressional nomination, outscored his opponent by a full 17 percentage points, but lost in November. Therefore, it is not a fantasy to lead very far in the polls and then lose.
Additionally, the US Electoral College system, analyzed by the British Financial Times, means that Biden may need to lead 4 percentage points in the national vote count to secure victory. Regarding the United States “Electoral College” system that ultimately determines the outcome of the general election, we will discuss it with you in future programs.
Of course, the biggest attribution for the inaccuracy of the polls is the “silent majority” that President Trump himself has been talking about.
The “Financial Times” reported that a poll in mid-August showed Biden leading by 7 percentage points. But when these voters were asked who they thought their neighbors would support, Trump ended up leading by 5 percentage points. In other words, this shows that there is a group of “shy” Sichuan fans who will not admit their loyalty to the voting agency.
Another poll conducted in July this year showed that 62% of Americans believed that “the current political climate prevents me from saying things that I believe.” Among Republicans, this proportion reaches 77%.
What makes this phenomenon even more pervasive is the “cancellation culture” or “cancellation culture” that is spreading among leftists. In other words, whether on political or social issues, as long as your speech or opinions do not conform to the ideology of the left, you will be attacked by leftist groups and will label it as “racial discrimination” or “intolerance.” “The hat of” stubbornness. “That is why Trump has repeatedly said that many conservatives have to silence themselves to protect themselves, but on November 3 they will use the votes in their hands to reflect the true power of the” silent majority. “
Someone asked, how do you know that Sichuan fans have more than “Biden fans”?
Polls show that more than 60% of those who support Biden because they hate Trump, and only a third really like Biden. In relative terms, more than 60% of those who support Trump really like Trump. Furthermore, Trump’s own support has remained at around 40-45% since he took office, and his “core disk” of grassroots voters has always been relatively stable.
Also, even if Biden leads the polls on a temporary basis, it doesn’t mean the lead will continue. In addition to the enthusiasm of the voters, Trump himself has the advantage of being the current president.
Looking at the US presidential elections after World War II, only 3 of the 11 sitting presidents seeking reelection ended in failure. This is because most current presidents have enormous administrative resources, media attention, and other electoral advantages. For example, Trump directly delivered his nomination speech at the center of power in the United States, the White House, this week. Before, there were dignitaries and celebrities sitting in the city, and then there was a rose garden that had just been renovated by the first lady. It can be said that he is in the “coffee position”. It is full of momentum. Compared to Biden, who can only deliver speeches via remote video, he’s slightly better in terms of resources and packaging.
Of course, there are still a few months left, and the poll results do not necessarily represent the last election night. We will continue to monitor the outcome of the general elections.
“General Election Observation” Production Team
Editor in Charge: Li Hao
