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The 2020 U.S. presidential election has reached a watershed moment. Current polls disagree with Trump, who is seeking reelection (pictured left), and Democratic candidate Biden. Image: Trump and Biden reversed Facebook / new head shell synthesis
The United States will hold general elections in a few hours. Polls cited by most of the media show that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is in the lead, but in 2016 he successfully predicted Trump’s election to the “Trafalgar Group.” (Trafalgar Group) and the “Rasmussen Report” (Rasmussen Report), but it shows that Trump will be re-elected. The IBD / TIPP, which is known as the most accurate survey, shows that the tension between the two sides is only 3.2%. After voting begins, there will also be an exit poll. But the FiveThirtyEight polling agency isn’t ready to do it, reminding the world that “export polls can be misleading, especially this year.”
FiveThirtyEight editor Laura Bronner and election analyst Nathaniel Rakich previously wrote that export polls can be misleading even in the most ideal state. People often rely on export surveys to guess who the winner is while they wait for the invoice results. However, the design of export polls is not to predict who will win and who will lose, but to understand the structure of the voting population (gender, race, education, religion). Changes to analyze the support received by each candidate.
Bronna and Rachik noted that people will post the first round of export polls at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day, when other time zones in the United States are still voting. There is a problem with conducting export surveys too early: those who go to polling stations earlier on Election Day are usually older people. Doing export polls for this group of voters will have a sample bias.
As it gets dark, more samples will be added and the structure will be closer to all voters. On the very night of the election, as more data comes out, the numbers will be reweighted, but the data that everyone sees is still full of uncertainties, especially this year, because the Wuhan pneumonia pandemic has fundamentally changed to United States. The way people vote.
Bronna and Rachik noted that the epidemic weakened the advantage of export polls in capturing real voters. The number of people who voted in person on Election Day this year will be much lower than in previous years. More than 95 million people across the United States have voted early. This means that interviews with voters leaving polling stations on Election Day will not provide reliable predictions; In particular, Republican voters mostly choose to vote that day, while Democratic voters choose to vote early or by mail.
Edison Research has developed an export survey model that combines telephone interviews. Includes voters who go to the polls and vote by mail. However, this year’s export surveys are still not reliable because telephone surveys are more. Traditional export surveys are more difficult. Telephone polls essentially put pollsters in an awkward situation, they have to guess if respondents who claimed to vote actually voted.
Also, although pre-election export polls can better identify actual voters than pre-election polls, the polling unit does not have enough experience exporting polls in advance. This means that your decisions about how to weight the sample may not be wise enough and may affect the accuracy of the surveys.
Bronna and Rachik concluded that this year there is no reason to believe that export polls will be more accurate than traditional pre-election polls. If you want to know who will win the elections, you will never have to believe too much in the exit polls, in this election you would prefer to spend some time waiting for the final result.
The number of people who voted in person on Election Day this year will be much lower than in previous years. More than 95 million people across the United States have voted early. This means that interviews with voters leaving polling stations on Election Day will not provide reliable predictions; in particular, Republican voters mostly choose to vote that day, while Democratic voters choose to vote early or by mail.
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