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International Center / Full Report
Recently, there have been widespread rumors on the internet that the amphibious forces of the People’s Liberation Army were conducting exercises in the South China Sea to encircle Dongsha Island. After the Ministry of National Defense clarified that, although there was co-aircraft harassment, no communist army surrounded Dongsha Island. In this regard, General Economist Wu Jialong analyzed the behind-the-scenes struggle of the Dongsha crisis today (14). He believes that for the United States, preparations for war are basically complete, just waiting for the CCP to fire the first shot, and then India, Japan and Australia. They will send troops and act alongside the US military.
▲ The American aircraft carrier Nimitz. (Photo / Flip from the Facebook page of the US Pacific Fleet)
Wu Jialong pointed out that the CCP’s interest in the Taiwan-controlled island of Dongsha is not news. In the first half of this year, foreign media have said that the CCP wants to take over the island of Dongsha. The reason is easy to understand. The geopolitical location of Dongsha Island is wonderful. To the northeast is the Taiwan Strait, to the east is the Bashi Strait, to the south is the South China Sea, and to the west is Hainan Island. This is simply a battlefield for strategists!
According to his analysis, the Dongsha crisis can be interpreted on four levels. The easiest to understand are the first two. First, the CCP’s purpose is to bring down the island of Dongsha and prepare to launch an operation to take over the island. The exercise can even turn into a surprise attack. Second, it was a siege rather than an attack, so either Taiwan could not be transported and resupplied, or the transport and resupply fleet did not dare to fire on the communist ships blocking the road, so it had They had to withdraw from Dongsha voluntarily, and the result was that the Communists could not fight. The soldiers, so that the US military has no excuse to intervene.
He noted that the previous two levels of interpretation focus on Dongsha Island itself, but Dongsha Island itself is easy to attack and difficult to defend. Even if it is taken over by the CCP, the CCP itself will be easily attacked and difficult to defend, and it will be retaken. Therefore, the CCP’s purpose is that the drunkard’s intention is not to drink.
Third, control the entry and exit of the Taiwan Strait on behalf of the exercise, which is clear from the scope of the exercise. In this case, Japan will not be able to stand still, because from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait it is also Japan’s maritime lifeline; Fourth, control the entry and exit of the Bashi Strait, protect the strategic nuclear submarine base at the southern tip of Hainan Island, and build further nuclear submarines. It is convenient to exit the Bashi Channel to the east and cross the first island chain western Pacific. As a result, the United States will not be able to sit still.
Wu Jialong said that the next two levels of interpretation focus on the waters of southwest Taiwan, and its strategic importance is to change the status quo of the Taiwanese and South China seas and threaten free navigation in international waters. Of course, this is a direct challenge to the United States’ ability to dominate the international order, because the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is exactly what the United States defined after World War II. He speculated that the CCP might intend to normalize the exercises in the waters of southwestern Taiwan, at least to have the effect of combating the attrition of Taiwan: “You have to take off and move away. You can also let the United States military I controlled it all the time. I don’t do it anyway. What can you do with the first shot? “
Wu Jialong believes that for the United States, preparations for war are basically complete, and only after the CCP fires its first shot will India, Japan and Australia send troops to act alongside the US military. It should be mentioned in particular that Japan and India have just signed a defense cooperative agreement of a certain nature, which can share military bases and military equipment. Therefore, the appearance of the Japanese navy in the Indian Ocean or the Bay of Bengal has been in the script for a long time.
He urged that the ROC Ministry of National Defense is not really polite, and that there should be the first shot, because the strategic thinking of a small country and a large country is different. If a small country abides by the rules and follows the rules set by others, it will always be looked down upon by the large country and will never feel safe. If Taiwan dared to fight a battle and could block the offending Communists, it would be a success. At that time, the United States and Japan would be kinder to Taiwan. After all, save your own country! National sovereignty, of course, will not yield!
