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On December 16, Bitcoin broke the $ 20,000 mark for the first time. Compared to the wave of more than two years ago, this time Bitcoin is more bullish driven by the global bull market; the increase in 2020 has surpassed 2 The market value exceeds US $ 400 billion, beating PayPal, Bank of America and US investment bank JPMorgan Chase, and it is a financial super product that cannot be ignored.
Facing the first time that Bitcoin reaches the $ 20,000 mark, former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and current Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz said he is optimistic that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the future, because it has been suppressed by the government in the past and Bitcoin transactions are not easy. , Performance suppressed, but since PayPal supports Bitcoin transactions, the situation has changed.
The past of graphics cards
Taiwan stocks have long been aware of Bitcoin’s bullish whirlwind. Two years ago, the mining concept stocks named Shaoxun, Qingyun, Leadtek, Biostar, Chaintech, Gigabyte, MSI and ASRock and other graphics-related companies have once again become the pursuing market. Attention. However, for the seemingly normal Bitcoin peg effect, analyst Feng Kaiping reminded investors: “Be careful! Don’t chase more mining-related chart stocks. No one is mining and expanding right now.”
Most investors are still in the era of Bitcoin’s rise over two years ago. At the time, every TV station and news media featured “Bitcoin mining experts” and analyzed how much money they were making each month at through mining and expansion. At that time, when I went to Guanghua Mall, all the stores were directly saying that the mining card was out of stock, and there were only high-end gaming graphics cards left. Even TSMC has felt this enthusiasm. At the 2018 Law Conference, TSMC directly stated that Bitcoin mining orders accounted for 10% of revenue. The capital market also comprehensively analyzed the “mining concept stocks” and laid the complete chain The supply chain is counted.
It’s just that these “mining events” have long since become history. Cai Zhenghua, an analyst who has been in the Chinese stock market for many years, has come across the prosperity of China’s crazy bitcoin mining. He said that early graphics card mining was indeed mainstream, but with the arrival of the Antminer developed by Bitmain (the world’s largest cryptocurrency mining machine brand), ASIC chips became mainstream of mining. . TSMC will receive the order from Bitmain.
The ASIC chip relies on its excellent performance and speed to completely eliminate the second line graphics card. Even the ASIC mining machine itself, as long as the new mining machine is released, the old generation will basically be scrapped. In other words, mining is a very capital intensive industry, if you don’t have the most modern and powerful equipment, don’t touch it.
The list-leading Bitmain has no score
On the other hand, since Bitcoin enters the third halving in May 2020 (which means that Bitcoin’s production capacity is halved, see the little knowledge for more details), this means that when miners spend a lot of money in an arms race, the Bitcoin exchange can be affected. It is half less than before. Not to mention that the upper limit of the total number of bitcoins is set at 21 million, currently more than 18 million have been mined and the difficulty of mining has become more and more high. When the entry cost of mining is not rewarded, the miners are also withdrawn from the market.
Cai Zhenghua said that this time Bitcoin hit the $ 20,000 mark, an increase of more than 200%. If the market is still very excited about the mining expansion, it is logical that the mining machine is sold hot and the corresponding share price rises and falls, but the situation is the opposite. .
As the world’s leading mining machine, Bitmain has a long list of listing dates. Although the second largest Jianan Zhizhi has been listed in the United States, the share price of this wave of Bitcoin has not moved much, even lower than the beginning of the year of 6.1 US dollars; As for the beautifully listed Yibang only in June Internationally, not only is there no honeymoon period, but when Bitcoin reached a new high, the share price fell below the listing price of US $ 5, 2. 3.
Simply put, the mining industry has been setting the sun for a long time and has been unable to participate in the prosperity brought on by this surge of Bitcoin. But what worries people is that this wave of mining machine stocks has been so tragic. Taiwan continues to enthusiastically promote mining concept stocks. It is too hot?
Mining group may become TDR reprint
Dongsen economics and finance analyst Zhang Wenhe said that in recent months, TDR shares have soared abnormally. Since the share price of the original place of issue of TDR has not increased dramatically, only the shares of Taiwan have unilaterally skyrocketed. Such speculation has also alarmed authorities to warn they fear investment. People get hurt.
Isn’t it the same for mining concept stocks this time around? The world’s mining is deserted, but only Taiwan is screaming. In fact, everyone who knows about the mining and expansion of Bitcoin knows that no one has been mining through graphics cards. On the contrary, Taiwanese stocks are taking advantage of the popularity of Bitcoin to exaggerate graphics cards. Investors should not chase too much.
Furthermore, due to the Bitcoin halving, mining has long been an investment that does not cover the cost. The rise and mining of Bitcoin can no longer be equaled, and no one on the global stock market pays attention to the mining industry. If Sanxiong Bitmain, Jianan Zhizhi and Ebon International mining machines that use ASIC chips cannot make money and stock prices are not going up but down, why is Taiwan’s mining supply chain, a graphics card company, able to go up this time?
Take Shaoxun as an example: In just one month, under the halo of the mining machine concept shares, it soared from 55 to 125 yuan, and the share price doubled. However, observing that the first three quarters are still in a state of loss, and you can’t smell the huge demand that mining brings, the share price has risen sharply, isn’t that paradoxical? Not to mention other 2-line chart stocks like Qingyun, Biostar, and Leadtek.
When Bitcoin broke the $ 20,000 mark and the global capital market was buzzing, it reminded investors of the old saying, “When you’re passionate, you need to be calmer.
(This article is reprinted with permission from Caixun; the source of the first image: Flickr / Marco Verch CC BY 2.0)
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