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Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said the home leaks turned out to be rainy nights. Four days after Taiwan stocks fell from an all-time high of 16,238, US stocks also fell sharply. Today’s low of 15367 fell nearly 900 points. Based on past experience, the market will rebound after a short-term drop of 1,000 points. The next 15,000 points are a whole level and generally will not be broken once. It is estimated that the earlier it will be tomorrow, the slower it will be next week, the closed-front stocks should rebound.
This wave of international stock markets receded at best. Asian stocks fell first, while US stocks lagged behind. The Fed warned after the meeting that the impact of the epidemic may delay the economic recovery, which may not be bad news, because the Fed will not raise interest rates due to rising prices, and keeping interest rates low is bullish for the stock market. .
Biden’s expansion of the rescue plan is stalled in the Senate. It may also be relieved by the Fed’s warning and the collapse of the US stock market. Who knows if this is a bitter game by Biden and the Fed. As long as the world keeps interest rates low and the government prints money and distributes money, the flood of funds will have nowhere to go and will eventually return to the stock market.
In particular, Taiwan shares will not be placed in flat real estate, much less banks, under the policy of renting rooms and low interest rates. Taiwan stocks have fallen in this wave and some stocks have become attractive to funds in the medium and long term.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, noted that recently many people have been using TSMC (2330-TW) and UMC (2303-TW). I can only say that “the stock is correct, but it is not correct to chase high and buy when the bull is out. In the second half of last year, foreign capital replenished almost 300,000 TSMC. It was the biggest winner from the high price of TSMC. Foreign capital also gave full play to the phrase “sell when you make a profit.”
From January 14 before the TSMC Law Conference, foreign investors began to sell the first wave, until after the Intel Law Conference the second wave was sold. The current share has fallen to the level of almost half a year ago. It is estimated that foreign sales pressure will be reduced. Today, TSMC fell to the monthly line, although it still closed, received a small red K bar and was above 600, which is happy to maintain the monthly line. From 679 yuan to the current low of 598 yuan, TSMC has fallen 81 yuan a share, which is equivalent to giving up half of this year’s earnings, and should theoretically recover.
Earlier, I discussed that TSMC’s retail financing has skyrocketed and that the bargaining chip can be chaotic. I’m afraid he will try the monthly line again. I can’t rule out the drop below 600 yuan, but I didn’t expect it to. come so soon. However, the long-term market has been slow to rise and fall. Based on previous investigation and judgment, TSMC has a chance to stabilize the short-term rally. After all, TSMC is not falling on the fundamentals, but on the currency and technical side.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said UMC is also expected to rebound as TSMC stabilizes. In the fourth quarter of last year, EPS was not as good as expected due to currency losses, but the share price reflects the future, and whether you have a good understanding of future performance or not, seeing that capital expenditures increase by 50%, everything is clear.
Starting in February next week, rising pools including DRAMs, LCDs, passive components, etc., should also rebound, as funds start to get stuck in well-earning stocks in the first month. January electronics low season can not be short, except for foundry, it is the price increase group. Only when the supply of products exceeds the demand will the price increase.
DRAM spot prices have been on the rise. Micron also estimates that the DRAM shortage will continue for many years. Nanya Technology (2408-TW) has fallen to the quarterly line. Usually solid stocks come back to the upside line, and at least there will be are bound. For example, the container ships Wan Hai (2615-TW) and Evergreen (2603-TW), this wave of ups and downs receded to the quarterly line, today the market fell sharply and did not follow the decline, and closed against the trend.
In addition, the supply of panels in the first quarter continued to rise in price. AUO (2409-TW) and Innolux (3481-TW) fell back to the quarterly line, and both foreign capitals covered it. Among them, AUO has also took the initiative today. Due to space limitations, there are more potential stock reviews, which will be shared with readers in the LINE fan club. Welcome to join for free.
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Wang Rongxu, Chief Investor, LINE Fan Group
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