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The presidential elections of the United States in 2020 are heading towards the most unpleasant situation for the experts, that is, the situation is stagnant and the result cannot be determined in the short term. Experts generally expect this result to lead to a drop in the European and US equity markets, but instead, equity markets have risen and fallen sharply and volatility has increased.
According to “Bloomberg,” US S&P 500 stock futures rose 2.1% on Wednesday (4th) Asian Time, then fell 1.3% with the billing situation, but after 5:00 PM ET. Taipei, changed again. To go up 1.1%, the increase narrowed quickly. European stocks opened sharply lower and then rose.
Without sufficient evidence to support Trump, he announced his re-election to the White House. He also said that he would go to the Supreme Court to request that the vote counting be stopped because the election was full of fraud.
There is no doubt that the current situation is the worst considered by experts among all pre-election scenarios. Adrian Lowcock, personal chief investment officer at investment platform Willis Owen, said the choice is much closer than many experts expected, and he hopes to see a quick and clear result, which now seems increasingly impossible.
The violent volatility of the stock market shows that investors are trying to value the victory of Trump or Biden, while expectations of the “blue wave” are fading.
Richard Carter, head of fixed income research at Quilter Cheviot, said: “In the short term, this disappoints the market and creates uncertainty for days or even weeks and the prospect of potential legal challenges.”
International investment experts also commented on the market outlook:
Kei Yamazaki, a fund manager at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management in Tokyo, said the outcome of the US general election led to long-term uncertainty, which would boost US debt and bring the stock market down.
Tuan Huynh, chief investment officer for Europe and Asia Pacific at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, said the results of the US general election will definitely be more stagnant than polls show. Unless Biden wins the election, the impact on emerging markets will be more limited.
Jeffrosenberg Tan, director of investment strategy at Sinarmas Sekuirtas, believes that if US President Trump is re-elected, global interest rates may remain low and the scale of US fiscal stimulus may be limited, creating a favorable environment for the bond market. corporate.
FGE Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki believes that if US President Trump is re-elected, oil prices may rise by $ 2-5 per barrel in the medium term.
George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management in Melbourne, said that due to Trump’s election and the Fed’s continued increase in expected balance sheet expansion, US bond prices will rise.
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