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US President Trump is seeking re-election Image: Retrieved from the White House Facebook page.
Less than a week before the 2020 US presidential election in Malaysia, the University of Southern California (USC Dornsife) poll, which accurately predicted the election of Donald Trump in 2016, predicted once again this time with its unique “social judgment”. In the general election, Trump will win the electoral votes; and the most credible polling agency Trafalgar, based on its own responses to the poll, and three polls, including Fox News, simultaneously predicted that Trump has a good chance of welcoming him. Come win the election twice.
The USC and the previous IBD / TIPP, which is known as the most accurate poll in the United States, were the only polling agencies that successfully predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. Currently, despite Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (Joe Biden), support remains high For Trump, the polling website indicated that when calculating how many electoral votes each candidate can get at the state level, it appears that “Biden has lost the electoral college.”
Using independent “social judgment” methods to predict election results, the Southern California method is similar to “Trafalgar’s” famous “social desire bias” method. The polls mainly asked respondents about the electoral preferences of their family and friends. Over the years, they have almost fallen short of their predictions, including: 2016 US Presidential Election, 2017 French Presidential Election, 2017 Netherlands Parliamentary Election, 2018 Sweden Parliamentary Election AND the Election of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.
“Trafalgar,” which is more objective, also responded to the Southern California forecast based on its own polls, saying it should be accurate. The agency announced the latest polls on the 28th. Currently, Trump leads in several key states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona; even in Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are five to five. Bo, completely defeated the polls conducted by the left.
As for Fox News, which has always supported Trump, it boldly predicted, based on its own polls, that Trump could beat Biden by more than double digits, leading between 49% and 38%.
Some experts analyzed that if Trump wins the election again, many polling companies should review it. Southern California polls believe that the majority of Trump supporters are quiet and shy and do not confess in the polls. Questions from the “social circle” make them less pressured and they can express their wishes.
In recent Trump campaigns, popularity has become increasingly popular. Compared to Biden, who said the city was closed, even the front row seats are far away. Compared to the unusually deserted scenes, it just won’t let go. It is still worth looking at whether popularity can be reflected in the ratings.
Using independent “social judgment” methods to predict election results, the Southern California method is similar to “Trafalgar’s” famous “social desire bias” method. The polls mainly asked respondents about the electoral preferences of their family and friends. Over the years, they have almost fallen short of their predictions, including: 2016 US Presidential Election, 2017 French Presidential Election, 2017 Holland Parliamentary Election, 2018 Sweden Parliamentary Election AND the Election of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018.
As the 2020 US presidential election is counting down, the Trump campaign is becoming increasingly popular.Image: Retrieved from Trump’s Facebook
US Democratic presidential candidate Biden was swept up in his son’s scandal and tried to turn the tide.Image: Reversed from Biden Twitter
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